A Statisitcal Look at Fiorentina's Back-to-Back Europa Conference League Final Runs

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For the second year running, Fiorentina are into the Europa Conference League final after narrowly beating Club Brugge across two legs in the semi-finals.

The Serie A side lost to West Ham United last time out, so let’s take a look at their probability of winning in 2023/24.

A Topsy-Turvy Trip to Prague Last Year

Although Fiorentina were worthy of a spot in the final of the Europa Conference League in 2022/23, they did manage to lose on three separate occasions across the competition. As well as this, they ended up finishing second in Group A behind İstanbul Başakşehir and therefore needed to play in the playoffs in order to keep up their hopes of a European title.

Başakşehir did manage to defeat them in the group stages that year, as the Super Lig side beat them 3-0 in Turkey. On the other hand, Fiorentina managed to defeat Başakşehir back on home soil, while they also managed to beat Heart of Midlothian home and away by scoring eight goals across those two games.

Fiorentina edged past Latvian side, RFS, by beating them 3-0 after a 1-1 draw in Florence. The 14 goals Fiorentina scored in Group A was the joint-most of any side in the competition, as Villarreal and Başakşehir scored the same, while even the eventual winners West Ham scored one less.

Fiorentina eased past Braga in the playoffs by beating them 4-0 in Portugal before a 3-2 win back in Italy. They then also defeated another Super Lig side by beating Sivasspor 5-1 over two legs, including a 4-1 win in Turkey.

By this point, Fiorentina were regarded as one of the favourites to win, but they did lose at home to Lech Poznan in the quarter-finals before a defeat in their own backyard to Basel as well. They still ended up in the final with away victories seeing them through, but a finish from Jarrod Bowen in the dying embers saw West Ham beat them in the final.

An Improved Run in 2023/24

Fiorentina scored the same amount of goals (14) in the group stages, and this time avoided a loss in the six games played. This also saw them avoid the playoffs as they finished first, and Fiorentina went on to edge past Maccabi Haifa 5-4 across two legs in the round of 16.

They did, however, need extra time to defeat Viktoria Plzeň in the quarters, as two goals away in the Czech Republic saw them set up a semi-final with Brugge.

It did look as if Fiorentina would be heading out, but a penalty in the 85th minute from Lucas Beltran saw them set up a final with Olympiacos in Greece.

Fiorentina have scored more goals this time around but also let in more too. Ultimately, against a ruthless Olympiacos in their homeland, they could taste another Europa Conference League final.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

ECL

Club Brugge Fiorentina 08/05/2024 18:45

352540

2

1 - 2

3.07

13°

2.75

2.50 3.30 2.75 no no no

FT

1 - 1(1 - 0)

-

- - -