Dinamo Zagreb are Big Favourites to Beat Flora
Dinamo Zagreb vs Flora Tallinn - 01/10/2020
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Dinamo Zagreb were dumped out of the Champions League qualifiers by Hungary’s Ferencvaros a little over a week ago. Now the Croatian champions find themselves in a one-off tie to keep their dreams of European football alive as they face Estonia’s Flora in the Europa League playoffs.
Zagreb head into Thursday’s clash as the huge favourites with all the bookmakers due to the club being regulars in European competition and having the home advantage. However, we’re not sure the game will be that easy for the Croatians, who only beat Cluj on penalties before losing 2-1 at Ferencvaros in the Champions League qualifiers.
The two previous meetings between Dinamo Zagreb and Flora both ended in narrow 1-0 wins for the Croatian club, though they were contested back in 2001.
Last season Dinamo Zagreb cruised to the 1. HNL title, finishing 15pts ahead of nearest rivals Lokomotiva Zagreb. After five games of the latest campaign, they remain on top of the pile in Croatia, but the league does look more competitive so far this season.
Zagreb picked up 15 wins from their 18 home games last season, only losing once. The hosts scored an average of 1.89 goals per home game and conceded an average of just 0.50 goals, which suggests Flora will find it difficult to score on Thursday. Dinamo Zagreb had a fantastic clean sheets record last season, stopping their opponents from scoring in a whopping 72% of their home matches.
Flora took the Meistriliiga title by 12pts last season and are well on their way to defending that trophy. The Estonian champions sit 10pts clear of Paide LM with a game in hand and are in great form heading into Thursday’s Europa League playoff tie.
To make it through to the final qualifying round, Flora beat Icelandic side KR 2-1, but a 0-0 draw away at Floriana meant that the Estonians had to rely on a penalty shoot-out to reach the playoffs.
Flora’s squad is made up of all Estonian nationals, including the vastly experienced international Enar Jaager, who has played over 120 times for the Estonian national team. Qualifying for the group stage would mean a lot to Flora as they have never made it as far as the playoffs before. Last season, Flora kept clean sheets in 61% of their away games and scored more goals on the road (57) than they did in their own backyard (53), so you can see why Dinamo Zagreb might not have it all their own way on Thursday.
We think that a tight and tense 90-minutes could be on the cards in this playoff tie and agree that the hosts are the favourites to win. There is a chance that we won’t see many goals scored though as both teams have strong defensive records and won’t want to concede the first goal. Flora’s best chance is to take the game to penalties, but that is going to prove a tough ask.
Home team
Away team
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
UEL
423028
1
3 - 1
3.35
17°
1.05
1.05
12.00
36.00
1
1
1
3 - 1(2 - 0)
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