Can Valencia overturn Atalanta’s colossal advantage?

Valencia CF vs Atalanta Bergamo - 10/03/2020

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On Tuesday night, Valencia welcome Atalanta to the Mestalla for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s men have an almost unassailable 4-1 lead heading into the second leg, so Valencia need to do something very special to stop Atalanta reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the very first time.

Goals from Hans Hateboer (2), Josip Ilicic, and Remo Freuler saw Atalanta race into a four-goal lead in the first leg before Denis Cheryshev gave Valencia a glimmer of hope with a late consolation goal.

However, the Italians already have one foot firmly in the last eight, while Valencia have a mountain to climb in order to progress.

Valencia have taken four points from a possible nine since the first leg. After losing to Real Sociedad 4-0, Los Ches beat Real Betis before drawing with Alaves last time out.

Albert Celades’ side currently sit seventh in La Liga but have the worst defensive record in the top half of the table. Valencia may have scored more goals than fourth-place Getafe and fifth-place Atletico Madrid, but keeping the ball out of their own net has been a problem throughout 2019/20.

Due to the coronavirus outbreak, La Dea have only played one game since the first leg in Milan a fortnight ago. Atalanta hammered Leece 7-2 in their previous game, with striker Duvan Zapata netting a hat-trick.

Top Trends

• Valencia CF have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 5 home games in Champions League
• Atalanta Bergamo have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 3 away games in Champions League
• Of their last 5 matches (Champions League), Valencia CF have seen 4 in which both teams scored
• Valencia CF have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their 5 most recent home games in Champions League

Atalanta now find themselves fourth in Serie A – three points ahead of fifth-place Roma and 15 points behind league-leaders Juventus.

Gasperini’s side are top scorers in the Italian top-flight by some distance, but their fearless approach regularly leaves the team exposed at the back.

Let’s turn our attention to the new teams now. Valencia will be without Christiano Piccini, Ezequiel Garay, Maxi Gomez, and Manu Vallejo through injury.

As for Atalanta, centre-backs Berat Djimsiti and Rafael Toloi are both sidelined. Gasperini may be tempted to field the same starting eleven that did so well in the first leg.

Valencia surely won’t go down without a fight. A 3-0 victory on home soil would be enough to see the Spanish outfit complete an unlikely comeback, and manager Albert Celades will take some confidence from the fact that Atalanta leak a lot of goals.

It’s worth mentioning that both teams have scored in four of Valencia’s past five games in all competitions, while eight of Atalanta’s previous nine games have seen goals scored at both ends of the pitch.

Forebet predicts that Valencia will claim a narrow victory on Tuesday with both teams scoring. However, it won’t be enough to see the Spaniards reach the next round.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

UCL

Valencia CF Atalanta Bergamo 10/03/2020 21:00

363133

1

2 - 1

3.22

13°

2.70

2.70 3.95 2.44 -1 1 1

FT

3 - 4(1 - 2)

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