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Italy and England expected to play out low-scoring draw in Naples

Italy vs England - 23/03/2023

Italy and England expected to play out low-scoring draw in Naples
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Italy and England will begin their UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying campaigns when they meet at Napoli’s Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Thursday night.

The two giants of European football are heavily favoured to progress from Group C, which also contains Malta, North Macedonia and Ukraine.

Let’s not forget that Italy defeat England on penalties to win the European Championship back in 2021, adding an extra bit of spice to Thursday’s showdown.

That Italians boast a hugely impressive record when it comes to Euro qualifiers, having avoided defeat in each of their last 40 outings.

Better still, Robert Mancini’s side have won each of their previous 14 Euro qualifiers, reaching the last European Championship with 10 straight victories.

That’s said, Italy failed to qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup altogether, suffering a shock play-off defeat to North Macedonia, who they will play in Group C.

Although Italy have won three of their past four matches, they suffered a 2-0 loss to Austria in their most recent encounter back in November.

On the flip side, England were knocked out of last year’s World Cup by France at the quarter-final stage, suffering a 2-1 defeat in the last eight.

The Three Lions enjoyed an unbeaten group-stage campaign in Qatar before dispatching Senegal 3-0 in the last 16, but they failed to reach the semi-finals.

It is also worth noting that England failed to win any of their Nations League games – in a group that Italy won – recording three draws and three losses.

Gareth Southgate’s squad is brimming with high-profile players, but they often flatter to deceive when it really matters.

Head-to-head: Italy took four points from two games against England in last year’s Nations League. Following a goalless draw at Wembley, the Italians won 1-0 on home soil.

On top of that, the Three Lions have failed to win any of their previous five meetings with Italy across all competitions, recording three low-scoring draws between 2012 and 2022.

Team news: Italy are without striker Ciro Immobile due to injury, so Mateo Retegui has been handed a debut call-up. Leeds United’s Wilfried Gnonto is also in the squad.

As for England, Raheem Sterling has not received a call-up due to injury, but Ivan Toney and James Maddison join Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka in the squad.

Given that four of the past five meetings between England and Italy have dished up under 2.5 goals, a low-scoring clash is expected in Naples.

Forebet predicts that Italy and England will play out a draw on Thursday, with both teams netting under 1.5 goals in the process.

Home team
Away team
Probability %
1X2
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
EuQ
363826
X
1 - 1
2.39
14°
3.20
2.75 3.20 2.63 no no no
FT
1 - 2(0 - 2)
-
- - -
Euro Qualifiers Group A
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Spain 21 8 7 0 1 20
2
Scotland 17 8 5 2 1 9
3
Norway 11 8 3 2 3 2
4
Georgia 8 8 2 2 4 -6
5
Cyprus 0 8 0 0 8 -25
Euro Qualifiers Group B
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
France 22 8 7 1 0 26
2
Netherlands 18 8 6 0 2 10
3
Greece 13 8 4 1 3 6
4
Ireland 6 8 2 0 6 -1
5
Gibraltar 0 8 0 0 8 -41
Euro Qualifiers Group C
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
England 20 8 6 2 0 18
2
Italy 14 8 4 2 2 7
3
Ukraine 14 8 4 2 2 3
4
North Macedonia 8 8 2 2 4 -10
5
Malta 0 8 0 0 8 -18
Euro Qualifiers Group D
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Türkiye 17 8 5 2 1 7
2
Croatia 16 8 5 1 2 9
3
Wales 12 8 3 3 2 0
4
Armenia 8 8 2 2 4 -2
5
Latvia 3 8 1 0 7 -14
Euro Qualifiers Group E
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Albania 15 8 4 3 1 8
2
Czech Republic 15 8 4 3 1 6
3
Poland 11 8 3 2 3 0
4
Moldova 10 8 2 4 2 -3
5
Faroe Islands 2 8 0 2 6 -11
Euro Qualifiers Group F
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Belgium 20 8 6 2 0 18
2
Austria 19 8 6 1 1 10
3
Sweden 10 8 3 1 4 2
4
Azerbaijan 7 8 2 1 5 -10
5
Estonia 1 8 0 1 7 -20
Euro Qualifiers Group G
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Hungary 18 8 5 3 0 9
2
Serbia 14 8 4 2 2 6
3
Montenegro 11 8 3 2 3 -2
4
Lithuania 6 8 1 3 4 -6
5
Bulgaria 4 8 0 4 4 -7
Euro Qualifiers Group H
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Denmark 22 10 7 1 2 9
2
Slovenia 22 10 7 1 2 11
3
Finland 18 10 6 0 4 8
4
Kazakhstan 18 10 6 0 4 4
5
N. Ireland 9 10 3 0 7 -4
6
San Marino 0 10 0 0 10 -28
Euro Qualifiers Group I
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Romania 22 10 6 4 0 11
2
Switzerland 17 10 4 5 1 11
3
Israel 15 10 4 3 3 0
4
Belarus 12 10 3 3 4 -5
5
Kosovo 11 10 2 5 3 0
6
Andorra 2 10 0 2 8 -17
Euro Qualifiers Group J
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Portugal 30 10 10 0 0 34
2
Slovakia 22 10 7 1 2 9
3
Luxembourg 17 10 5 2 3 -6
4
Iceland 10 10 3 1 6 1
5
Bosnia-Herzegovina 9 10 3 0 7 -11
6
Liechtenstein 0 10 0 0 10 -27

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