Before the round – Trends on Italy Serie A (08-09/11)

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Napoli won their big six-point top-of-table clash with Atalanta last weekend. Now, Napoli are six points ahead of second-place AC Milan, who won at the weekend versus Spezia.

Cremonese, Lecce, and Spezia are all at the wrong end of the table. All three need to pick up unlikely points this week to improve their fight for safety.

Spezia – Udinese

Spezia will host Udinese with a mere three points separating them from the bottom three. Udinese are on a rotten run of form after flirting with the top of the table in the first few months of the season. The away team won the last five games between these sides in all competitions.

Spezia took just one point from their last six games in Serie A. They are on a three-game losing streak in the league and are struggling for goals. Just four were scored in their last six games.

Udinese took seven points from the last six games. They are on a five-match winless streak in the league. The Zebrette are also struggling for goals, with just six scored in the last six games.

• Spezia Calcio have suffered 3 straight defeats in their most recent clashes in Serie A.
• Udinese Calcio are unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 Serie A games.
• Spezia Calcio are in an unfortunate period, having won just 1 of their last 12 matches in Serie A.
• In their 6 most recent matches of Serie A, Udinese Calcio have achieved just 1 wins.
• Prediction: Draw @3.75

Cremonese – Milan

Milan kept pace with Napoli at the weekend with a 2-1 win against Spezia. Now, the Rossoneri will face off with Cremonese, and they will fancy all three points.

Cremonese are 18th in the table after 13 games. They are winless this season in Serie A, with all six points coming from draws. Cremonese drew their last two league fixtures.

AC Milan took 15 points from the last six matches in Serie A. They outscored their last six opponents 14-6. Milan only won three of their last six road games. Could Cremonese spring an upset?

• Cremonese reach an average of 0.85 goals scored in their games (Serie A).
• AC Milan are undefeated in 27 of their last 29 Serie A games.
• Cremonese have won just 1 of their last 15 games in all competitions.
• There are no losses for AC Milan in 17 of their most recent 18 away games (Serie A).
• Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @2.20

Lecce – Atalanta

Atalanta are unbeaten in six straight games in all competitions versus Lecce. On Wednesday, La Dea will try to get back into the Serie A title race with a win away versus the Giallorossi.

Atalanta are fresh off a 2-1 home loss to Napoli. Two of their last three games in the league finished as defeats. La Dea scored eight times and conceded seven goals across the last six games.

Lecce picked up three points from the last six games. They were outscored 8-4 across those six matches. Lecce were held scoreless in two of their last three games.

• US Lecce have achieved just 1 wins of their last 13 Serie A games.
• Atalanta Bergamo are undefeated in their last 6 games against US Lecce in Serie A.
• Under 2.5 goals have been scored in the 5 most recent home Serie A games of US Lecce.
• On average, Atalanta Bergamo have allowed 0.33 goals in their most recent away games in Serie A.
• Prediction: Atalanta Bergamo @1.85

Fiorentina – Salernitana

Last season’s Serie A matches between Fiorentina and Salernitana saw the home team win both games. Both sides will begin the midweek round in midtable and will fancy all three points.

Fiorentina are 11th and on a two-game winning streak. After a slow start to the season, they are playing much better. La Viola are still giving up goals, as they conceded 11 times in the last six games.

Salernitana are unbeaten in three straight matches, with two of those games ending as wins. Ten points were picked up from the last six games. However, Salernitana have just one win from six road games this season.

• Fiorentina have managed to score 2+ goals in their last 3 matches in Serie A.
• In their 8 most recent away matches of Serie A, Salernitana have achieved just 1 wins.
• On average, Fiorentina have conceded 1.83 goals in their last home matches in Serie A.
• Salernitana conceded an average of 1.83 goals in their away matches in Serie A.
• Prediction: Over 2.5 goals @1.73