Football is Mathematics
UEFA Champions League 18
UEFA Europa League 18
UEFA Europa Conference League 18
Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 7
Under the Galician lights, Celta Vigo seek a course correction while Juventus arrive with momentum and a clinical edge. One side has grown hard to beat, the other increasingly hard to stop, and Balaídos should offer a revealing measure of both.
Celta’s last six in all competitions read one win, four draws and one loss, a sequence that underlines resilience more than ruthlessness. They have averaged 1.17 goals scored while allowing just 0.5 per match, and at home across their last three they have one win, one draw and one loss with six scored and three conceded.
Juventus enter with three wins, two draws and one loss across their last six in all competitions, producing 2.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83. The broader trend is strong: they are undefeated in 13 of their last 15 in all competitions and have posted three wins by two or more goals in their last seven.
Through the Europa League lens, Juventus are unbeaten in each of their last nine matches in the competition, with five wins in that run and averages of 1.78 scored and 0.44 conceded. Celta’s Europa record shows 50% wins across their last 14, but they have lost three of their last six in this competition, so consistency is still a work in progress.
The opening round told a tale of two performances. Celta fell 0-1 at Omonia despite 19 shots, 11 corners and 54% possession, undone late after controlling large stretches. Juventus dismantled NEC Nijmegen 5-0, with Nico González, Kerim Alajbegovic, Nick Woltemade, Zeki Çelik and Randal Kolo Muani all scoring in a ruthless display that matched their continental form line.
Underlying numbers reinforce the stylistic contrast. Celta’s last six bring 13.17 shots and four on target per match with 49% possession, pointing to balanced but selective attacking. Juventus have driven play at a higher clip with 16.67 shots, 6.83 on target and 55.67% possession across their last six, pairing volume with accuracy.
There is a push and pull inside Celta’s trend sheet. They have drawn 50% of their last 12 in all competitions, which is six draws, and are unbeaten in five of their last six. Yet they are winless in 10 of their last 12 overall, an illustration of narrow margins. In Europa League home fixtures, they have seven wins from their last 14, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Juventus travel well. They are undefeated in eight of their last 10 away matches in all competitions, winning 50% of their last eight away while conceding just 0.75 per game and posting five clean sheets across their last 12 trips. That base, coupled with their Europa run, supports a compact, counter-ready approach in Vigo.
Personnel could tilt the midfield battle. Celta are without Miguel Román, Carl Starfelt and Jones El-Abdellaoui, trimming options at the base and in the back line. Iago Aspas and Sebastián Cáceres have returned to the group, but the recent defensive structure points towards Yoel Lago, Marcos Alonso and Javi Rodríguez carrying important responsibility against Juventus’ front line.
Celta Vigo probable lineup (3-4-3):
Goalkeeper: Ionuț Radu
Defenders: Javi Rodríguez, Yoel Lago, Marcos Alonso
Midfielders: Álvaro Núñez, Ilaix Moriba, Aleix Febas, Javi Galán
Attackers: Hugo Álvarez, Ferran Jutglà, Pablo Durán
Juventus are without Kamil Grabara after his knee injury, so Guglielmo Vicario should continue in goal. Manuel Locatelli’s absence keeps the midfield emphasis on Douglas Luiz and Pape Sarr, while Kenan Yıldız and Jeff Ekhator remain unavailable. Kolo Muani has scored in consecutive competitive appearances, including the late equaliser at Cagliari, and should lead the line again.
Juventus probable lineup (4-2-3-1):
Goalkeeper: Guglielmo Vicario
Defenders: Pierre Kalulu, Bremer, Jhon Lucumí, Zeki Çelik
Midfielders: Douglas Luiz, Pape Sarr
Attackers: Francisco Conceição, Weston McKennie, Nico González, Randal Kolo Muani
Tactically, Celta have leaned on a back three and wingbacks, using control phases to feed Ferran Jutglà and Pablo Durán. Juventus under Luciano Spalletti have toggled between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1, but the four-man defence used at Cagliari better reflects the likely balance here, with Çelik and Kalulu giving width from deeper areas.
Juventus’ Europa League form, away resilience and sharper attacking metrics tip this toward the visitors. With a 44% probability for the away win, the narrow margin looks most plausible, and a 0-1 scoreline is the lean.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Juventus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
2 |
Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
3 |
Besiktas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
4 |
Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
5 |
Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
6 |
Ferencvaros | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
7 |
Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
8 |
SL Benfica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
9 |
OFI Creta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
10 |
Bournemouth | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
11 |
Lyon | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
12 |
Olympiacos FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
13 |
União Torreense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
14 |
Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
15 |
RB Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
16 |
Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
17 |
Rennes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
18 |
Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
19 |
Sturm Graz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
20 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
21 |
Real Sociedad | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
22 |
Lillestrom SK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
23 |
Anderlecht | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
24 |
Jagiellonia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
25 |
Celta Vigo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
26 |
AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
27 |
Levski Sofia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
28 |
Celtic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
29 |
Milan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
30 |
Hoffenheim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
31 |
Celje | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
32 |
Olympique Marseille | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
33 |
Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
34 |
Viktoria Plzen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
35 |
Lech Poznan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 |
36 |
Nijmegen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
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