AZ Alkmaar’s home steel meets Hapoel Beer Sheva’s resilient travelers

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva - 10/15/2026

10/12/2026 170

Two contrasting European rhythms converge as AZ Alkmaar look to turn strong home patterns into points, while Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive with sturdy away habits but a need to lift their continental scoring output. The margins point to a tight, tactical contest shaped by possession control, set pieces, and midfield structure.

Key Points

• AZ’s recent AFAS profile remains strong, with high shot volume and regular territorial control at home.
• Hapoel Beer Sheva opened with a 0-0 draw against Dinamo Zagreb but managed only two shots on target despite heavy possession.
• Kees Smit is expected to miss out for AZ, making Calvin Stengs the likeliest central attacking option.
• Hapoel warmed up with a 2-0 league win at Ironi Tiberias, with João Victor and Amankwah Forson scoring.
• Prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win, 1-0.

Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar enter with a balanced run in all competitions across their last six matches, recording 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses while averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. At home across their last three, they have been sharper: 2 wins and 1 draw, with 2.33 goals scored and only 1 conceded, backed by 19.67 total shots, 7 on target, and 60.33% possession per match.

Hapoel Beer Sheva’s last six in all competitions show 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, yielding 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded on average. Their broader away sample is encouraging too, but a key continental storyline remains their chance conversion in this tournament.

Recent History

Both teams opened the Europa League league phase with contrasting outcomes. AZ fell 1-0 away to Sunderland despite 55% possession and 5 corners, creating 11 shots but only 2 on target. The structure and ball control were there, the penalty concession and final-third precision were not.

Hapoel Beer Sheva drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb while dominating territory: 66% possession, 15 shots, and 6 corners. The platform looked solid, yet only 2 shots hit the target. That clean sheet keeps them anchored early in the league phase, but they need end-product to match their build-up.

Overall Performance

In all competitions over the last 40 matches, AZ have 20 wins, scoring 1.95 and conceding 1.15 per match. Notably, they have avoided defeat in 13 of their last 15, and at home they have been formidable, staying unbeaten in 28 of their last 30 all-competition fixtures.

Hapoel Beer Sheva’s 40-match canvas shows 23 wins with 1.85 scored and 1.2 conceded on average. They have avoided defeat in 6 of their last 7 across all competitions, reinforcing a reputation for staying in games and managing scorelines on the road.

Main Trends

AZ’s European home metrics are particularly strong: unbeaten in 95% of their last 20 Europa League home matches, with 7 clean sheets in their last 17 and a 53% win rate across the last 15. There is a quirk, though: 50% of their last 8 home games in all competitions ended level, hinting at tighter margins despite high shot volume.

Hapoel Beer Sheva’s away base in all competitions is sound, with 7 wins in their last 12 and 40% clean sheets across their last 20 away fixtures. However, in the Europa League they are winless in 7 of their last 8, have lost 4 of those 8, and 43% of that sample featured defeats by 2 or more goals. The contrast between their domestic and European travel is striking.

Team News and Probable Lineups

AZ are coached by Leeroy Echteld and are expected to keep their 4-2-3-1 structure. Kees Smit is set to miss out for several weeks, while Stije Resink remains sidelined and Jizz Hornkamp is still working back from injury. Mexx Meerdink returned from international duty with a minor calf issue but was back on the pitch before the weekend trip to Feyenoord.

AZ Alkmaar probable XI (4-2-3-1): Jari De Busser; Elijah Dijkstra, Wouter Goes, Lewis Schouten, Mateo Chávez; Jordy Clasie, Peer Koopmeiners; Ayoub Oufkir, Calvin Stengs, Ro-Zangelo Daal; Mexx Meerdink.

Stengs is the natural replacement for Smit between the lines, while Oufkir and Daal should again provide the width around Meerdink. AZ’s main question is not structure but sharpness, after useful possession away to Sunderland and Feyenoord failed to produce enough clear finishing.

Hapoel Beer Sheva, under Ran Kozuch, have a choice between continuity from the Dinamo clean sheet and the side that beat Ironi Tiberias 2-0 on Saturday. Lucas Ventura and Itay Rotman were both involved in that league win after earlier fitness concerns, while Yoan Stoyanov is not in the UEFA squad.

Hapoel Beer Sheva probable XI (4-3-3): Ofir Marciano; Guy Mizrahi, Miguel Vítor, Matan Baltaxa, Pedro Amador; Amankwah Forson, Niv Yehoshua, Mohammad Kanaan; Javon East, Igor Zlatanovic, Yonas Malede.

Forson’s late goal at Tiberias strengthens his case to start, while Marciano, Miguel Vítor and Amador give Kozuch a seasoned defensive core. Hapoel’s challenge is to turn possession into clearer chances after 15 shots produced only two on target against Dinamo Zagreb.

Prediction

With AZ’s home body of work in Europe and their recent shot creation at AFAS translating to territorial control, the onus sits on Hapoel Beer Sheva to break a continental run that has seen them winless in 7 of their last 8 Europa League matches. The outcome model gives an AZ win a 43% probability, and the matchup data points to a narrow margin. Prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win, 1-0.

Home team
Away team

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UEL

AZ Alkmaar Hapoel Beer Sheva 15/10/2026 18:45

433621

11-0

1 - 0

1.70

61°F

-333

-333 +475 +800 no no no

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