Excelsior and Groningen Set for Tight Eredivisie Battle at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Excelsior vs Groningen - 10/11/2026

09/21/2026 549

The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion is likely to witness a closely fought encounter as Excelsior and Groningen square off in Eredivisie action. Both teams enter this mid-autumn fixture with solid early-season records and plenty of firepower. The data suggests minimal margin for error, and history has plenty to suggest this one could go down to the wire.

Recent History

Looking at their last ten clashes, Excelsior have managed three wins against Groningen, with only one match ending in a draw. Groningen, though, have taken the upper hand with six victories in this stretch. This slightly one-sided head-to-head record gives Groningen the statistical edge, but recent results indicate that Excelsior remain a stubborn opposition when playing at home.

Groningen may take heart that, over these encounters, their attack has repeatedly found a way through Excelsior's defense. However, with Excelsior claiming points in four of the last ten meetings, there’s no guarantee either side can truly dominate.

Recent Form

Excelsior’s form in their last six matches shows a balanced output: two wins, two draws, and two losses, with 1.83 goals scored per game on average. Their attack has looked effective, but they’ve also conceded 1.5 a game. Their last home matches reveal a dip in results (winning just one of the last three), but they’ve held their own against solid Eredivisie sides.

Looking at Groningen, their recent run mirrors Excelsior's: two wins, two draws, and two defeats, but with a slightly sharper edge in attack—netting 2.17 per game. The away side’s average possession is 48%, and they’re getting 14.67 total shots off each game, with 5.5 of them on target—numbers that suggest a proactive approach in the final third.

Main Trends

Several metrics stand out for Excelsior. Across their last twelve matches in all competitions, they've won six and netted 2.42 goals per clash. They have remained undefeated in 83% of these matches, so they're a difficult team to break down. However, a worrying sign is their home form: they’ve failed to win in 82% of their last eleven home games. Defensively, their home record isn't bad, conceding only 1.05 on average over the last forty matches.

Groningen, on the other hand, have won half of their last ten matches and scored 1.9 goals per match in that sequence. Their away record remains mixed—they've lost 24 of their last 40 on their travels. Notably, Groningen have lost by two or more in three of their last seven away matches but still manage to score at a steady clip on the road (1.57 per match over those games).

Match Analysis and Statistics

Excelsior’s last outing, a 2-2 draw with Ajax, was a testament to their resilience. Despite having just 19% possession and being out-shot 33 to 4, they were clinical in front of goal and grabbed a point. Prior to that, they lost to Utrecht 1-2 at home, despite out-possessing their visitors and creating more attacking moments. Wins against Willem II Tilburg (3-0 away) and Sparta Rotterdam (2-1 at home) show that Excelsior can find extra gears on their day.

Groningen recently dispatched PEC Zwolle 3-0 at home and earned draws with Go Ahead Eagles (1-1) and Twente (2-2). Their heavy 5-1 defeat at PSV was a blow, but they bounced back with an emphatic 4-1 victory at ADO Den Haag. That blend of strong results and a high shot count underlines the danger they pose.

Probable Lineups

Excelsior

Goalkeeper: Stijn van Gassel

Defenders: Eric da Silva Moreira, Casper Widell, Jan Plug, Simon Janssen

Midfielders: Rick Meissen, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian, Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson

Attackers: David Garden, Aymen Sliti

Groningen

Goalkeeper: Etienne Vaessen

Defenders: Wouter Prins, Thijmen Blokzijl, Márk Csinger, Jorg Schreuders

Midfielders: Pelle Clement, Tika de Jonge, David van der Werff, Tygo Land, Thom van Bergen

Attackers: Brynjólfur Willumsson

Prediction

The data points to a tightly contested battle with little separating either side. With both teams boasting balanced recent form and Groningen’s positive head-to-head record, a stalemate seems the probable outcome. Forebet's algorithm predicts under 2.5 goals and a 1-1 draw, with the probability of a draw at 37%. Both sides appear capable of finding the net, but neither holds enough of an edge to be clear favorites.

Summary

Excelsior will try to leverage their clinical finishing at home to offset their struggle to string wins together. Groningen’s attacking intent could make the difference, but with both sides matching up so evenly in recent form and last ten head-to-heads, it’s difficult to see either running away with this one. A low-scoring draw is the sensible projection as both teams continue to search for form in the Top Flight.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

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Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

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Score

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coef.

Nl1

Excelsior Groningen 11/10/2026 16:45

283735

X1-1

1 - 1

2.40

57°F

+260

+170 +260 +145 no no no

FT

1 - 5(1 - 2)

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