Football is Mathematics
UEFA Champions League 18
UEFA Europa League 18
UEFA Europa Conference League 18
Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 7
Two teams searching for their stride meet at Het Kasteel as Sparta Rotterdam welcome Willem II Tilburg in the Eredivisie. With both sides seeking their first win in several matches, this fixture is set to test the resilience and ambition of squads desperate to climb the table.
Sparta Rotterdam's recent performances have left much to be desired. They haven't managed a single win in any of their last six outings, drawing three and losing three, while conceding an average of three goals per match. Scoring hasn't been the problem entirely, averaging 1.67 goals over the same span, but defensive vulnerabilities have undermined their efforts.
Playing at home hasn't brought the necessary lift. In their last three matches at Het Kasteel, Sparta have drawn two and lost one, conceding three goals per game. Their average possession at home stands at a decent 53%, and they register over 15 shots per game, but they struggle to capitalize on their opportunities and maintain defensive discipline.
For the visitors, Willem II Tilburg, it has been an even tougher start to the season. They have failed to secure victory in their last eight matches in all competitions, with just two draws and six defeats. Their offense has looked blunt, delivering just 0.83 goals per match in the last six, while allowing an average of 2.5 goals. Their most recent away performances indicate issues with creativity as well, as they average only 9 shots and 2.67 on target per away fixture.
Deeper trends underline the ongoing struggles. Sparta Rotterdam are winless in 20 of their last 25 matches across all competitions, indicating that their current run is not simply a short-term blip. Furthermore, 83% of their last 12 home matches have ended without success, showing that Het Kasteel has not been a fortress this campaign.
Head-to-head, Sparta Rotterdam have enjoyed a measure of success against Willem II Tilburg in recent meetings. They've won seven of the last 13 games between the sides, and at home, Sparta have claimed three wins, a draw, and a single defeat in their last five hosting duels. Notably, in three of the last five encounters at Het Kasteel, Sparta secured victories by a margin of two or more goals, a statistic that could boost their confidence ahead of this clash.
Willem II Tilburg's away record is troubling. The team have won only 50% of their last 20 away matches over all competitions, but recent form is well below that, registering six defeats in their past 12 league outings and going winless in nine of their last 11 Eredivisie games. Defensively, they've conceded 23 goals across eight league matches, giving them the worst defensive record in the division at this stage.
Turning to probable lineups, Sparta Rotterdam have an almost full squad with only Shunsuke Mito set to miss out through injury. The recent rotations under coach Rogier Meijer suggest a preference for a 4-2-3-1 setup. Expect Michael Brouwer in goal, protected by a back four of Martes, Young, Martins Indi, and Kuipers. In midfield, Baas and Hatenboer should anchor, with Terho, Babadi, and Zonneveld supporting lone striker Mitchell van Bergen.
Sparta Rotterdam Probable Starting XI
Goalkeeper: Michael Brouwer
Defenders: Lushendry Martes, Marvin Young, Bruno Martins Indi, Bas Kuipers
Midfielders: Julian Baas, Cedric Hatenboer, Isaac Babadi, Casper Terho
Attackers: Milan Zonneveld, Mitchell van Bergen
Willem II Tilburg face significant injury concerns, with Armin Culum, Amine Lachkar, Thomas Didillon-Hödl, Justin Hoogma, Thijs Muller, and Kasper Boogaard all missing. Per van Loon, normally a midfield regular, is also sidelined after picking up a minor knock recently. Coach John Stegeman will likely stick to his favoured 4-2-3-1, with Maxime Delanghe in goal, Stam, ter Avest, Dekker, and Tjoe-A-On across the back, and Twigt and van Aalst as central midfielders. Slory, Vilhena, and Gürbüz should line up behind striker Devin Haen.
Willem II Tilburg Probable Starting XI
Goalkeeper: Maxime Delanghe
Defenders: Finn Stam, Hidde ter Avest, Maxim Dekker, Nathan Tjoe-A-On
Midfielders: Calvin Twigt, Uriël van Aalst, Jaden Slory, Tonny Vilhena, Eser Gürbüz
Attackers: Devin Haen
Looking at recent matches, both teams have defensive issues. Sparta conceded four in home defeat to Heerenveen and three goals in a draw at Go Ahead Eagles, despite creating 18 shots and controlling good phases of play. Willem II suffered a 3-1 defeat at Utrecht and 5-1 at Ajax, with their only recent points coming in respectable 1-1 draws at AZ Alkmaar and at home to Heerenveen.
Given these trends, Sparta Rotterdam are seen as slight favourites with a predicted win probability of 43%. Their superior recent record against Willem II, combined with marginally better offensive productivity and home advantage, give them the edge to potentially secure a long overdue win and heap further pressure on their struggling opponents.

| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Feyenoord | 20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
2 |
PSV Eindhoven | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
3 |
AZ Alkmaar | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
4 |
Twente | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
5 |
Ajax | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
6 |
Groningen | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
7 |
Fortuna Sittard | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
8 |
Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
9 |
Excelsior | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
10 |
Heerenveen | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
11 |
Nijmegen | 9 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 |
12 |
Cambuur | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 |
13 |
Utrecht | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 |
14 |
Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 |
15 |
SC Telstar | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 |
16 |
PEC Zwolle | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 |
17 |
ADO Den Haag | 3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 |
18 |
Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 |
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