Ajax Look to Extend Strong Home Run Against Stumbling Nijmegen in Eredivisie Clash

Ajax vs Nijmegen - 10/10/2026

09/21/2026 786

Ajax return to the Johan Cruijff Arena for their Eredivisie showdown against Nijmegen, seeking to build on an impressive run of form while the visitors aim to reverse their recent struggles.

The most recent meeting between Ajax and Nijmegen saw the teams share the spoils at 1-1 on February 21, 2026. While Ajax built an early lead through M. Godts, Nijmegen answered back after halftime with D. Nejasmic netting the equalizer.

Despite the draw, Nijmegen managed to outshoot Ajax 18 to 9, and they also edged the possession and dangerous attacks categories, with 52% of the ball and 47 dangerous attacks to Ajax's 25. This was no routine away performance; Nijmegen proved competitive all over the pitch.

Heading into the match, Ajax have momentum at their backs. Unbeaten in 14 of their last 15 Eredivisie matches and undefeated in 12 of their last 15 home league games, Ajax's consistency has been a trademark. Their last six Eredivisie outings include four wins and a single defeat, with an impressive average of 3.67 goals scored per game.

At home, Ajax have shown a blend of attacking flair and territorial dominance. Their last three matches in Amsterdam have included one win, a draw, and a loss, but the underlying numbers remain strong: an average of 28 total shots, 9 on target, and commanding 68% possession at the Johan Cruijff Arena.

Nijmegen, by contrast, are winless in five straight matches in all competitions. Their last six in the league see them with just one victory accompanied by three defeats, and on average they are scoring just 1.17 goals per match while conceding 2.5.

Away form for Nijmegen gives some cause for concern. Across their last ten away games in all competitions, they have lost five times and conceded an average of 2.1 goals. Over their most recent run, three losses and only one win highlight a lack of stability.

Over a longer horizon, Ajax have won 14 of their last 28 games across all competitions, with a robust attack netting 2.36 goals per match and a defense allowing just 1.14. Their recent home record against Nijmegen is balanced, with three wins in the last six meetings at the Arena.

Nijmegen's broader numbers show struggles too, with seven defeats in their last 14 outings and an average of only 1.21 goals scored. Moreover, they have failed to win in 80% of their past 15 fixtures, a stark contrast to Ajax's more consistent results. When playing away, while they have won half of their last 20 matches, their recent league form has not matched those older figures.

Based on recent selections and no reported sidelined players, both squads should field their regular starters. For Ajax (expected 4-3-3), the likely lineup is:

Ajax

Goalkeeper: Marc ter Stegen

Defenders: Anton Gaaei, Thilo Kehrer, Caio Henrique, Youri Baas

Midfielders: Julian Brandt, Davy Klaassen, Jorthy Mokio

Attackers: Kasper Dolberg, Oscar Gloukh, Steven Berghuis

Nijmegen should continue in a 3-4-2-1 shape, utilising frequent starters:

Nijmegen

Goalkeeper: Nikolas Polster

Defenders: Perr Schuurs, Tobias Storm, Gabriel Brás

Midfielders: Noé Lebreton, Dennis Geiger, Adam Tahaui, Dele Thomas

Attackers: Tjaronn Chery, Dusan Tadic, Bryan Linssen

Ajax’s attack is expected to test a Nijmegen backline that has shown vulnerability, especially away from home. Given Ajax's strengths in possession and in creating high volumes of shots and dangerous attacks, they will likely press for an early advantage.

Forebet’s algorithm predicts a win for the hosts, with Ajax’s probability of victory at 41%. While Nijmegen showed they can compete in the reverse fixture last season, Ajax’s blend of offensive firepower and historical dominance at home makes them favorites to claim all three points.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Nl1

Ajax Nijmegen 10/10/2026 21:00

413721

13-1

3 - 1

3.60

57°F

-278

-278 +425 +650 no no no

FT

1 - 1(1 - 1)

-

- - -