Milan Seek Revenge Against Atalanta After Spring Defeat

Milan vs Atalanta - 10/18/2026

10/13/2026 26

Milan gear up for a demanding Serie A fixture at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza as Atalanta return after May’s 3-2 win at San Siro. Ruben Amorim’s side remain unbeaten in the league, while Maurizio Sarri’s Atalanta arrive lifted by a timely victory over Venezia.

Key Points

• Milan have taken 12 points from their first six Serie A matches and are still unbeaten in the league.
• Atalanta ended a run of three straight league defeats by beating Venezia 3-1, with Nikola Krstović scoring twice.
• Alexis Saelemaekers and Matteo Gabbia are set to miss out for Milan, while Eljif Elmas is suspended for Atalanta after his red card against Venezia.
• The locked prediction is Milan to win, with a 57% home-win probability and 2-1 the most likely score.

Recent History

The last meeting between Milan and Atalanta remains vivid in memory. On May 10, Atalanta edged out Milan 3-2 at San Siro. Éderson struck in the seventh minute, Davide Zappacosta doubled the lead before half-time and Giacomo Raspadori made it 3-0 early in the second half, before Strahinja Pavlović and Christopher Nkunku pulled Milan back into the contest late on.

That contest was marked by Atalanta’s sharpness in the final third and Milan’s late reaction. History suggests margins between the two are often slender, especially when meeting in Milan, although the Rossoneri still hold the stronger overall head-to-head record across this fixture.

Recent Form

Ruben Amorim’s side have started with a mix of control and frustration. Milan opened Serie A with wins over Torino, Venezia and Lecce, while also drawing with Juventus, Lazio and Sassuolo. Their latest league outing was a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo, where Adrien Rabiot scored before Odenthal levelled from a set-piece scramble.

Milan have taken 12 points from six league games without losing, but converting dominance into victories remains the task. The October schedule is also demanding, with European commitments either side of a difficult domestic run that includes Atalanta, Udinese, Bologna and the derby against Inter.

Where Milan have built a point-accumulating habit, Atalanta have blown hot and cold. Sarri’s team began with wins over Sassuolo and Bologna, then lost to Roma, Cagliari and Juventus before responding with a 3-1 home win over Venezia.

That Venezia game brought a badly needed spark. Franck Kessié scored early and Nikola Krstović followed with a first-half brace, underlining why he is pushing ahead of Gianluca Scamacca in the centre-forward discussion. Even so, Atalanta allowed Venezia back into the game after the break, so defensive stability remains a concern.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Injuries influence the lineup for both teams. For Milan, Alexis Saelemaekers is sidelined by an ankle problem and Matteo Gabbia is expected to miss out after being forced off on a stretcher with a muscular injury at Sassuolo. That should keep Koni De Winter in the back line, while Luka Modrić could return to the XI after starting on the bench in Reggio Emilia.

Milan probable XI: Mike Maignan; Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Pervis Estupiñán; Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira; Christian Pulisic; Gonçalo Ramos.

Amorim has recently used a 4-4-1-1 shape, with Pulisic operating close to Ramos and Moreira offering width and direct running from the left. Chukwueze’s role on the opposite flank also looks important with Saelemaekers unavailable.

Atalanta are without Odilon Kossounou and Isak Hien, while Thomas Pompei is recovering from a broken finger. Raspadori was back on the bench against Venezia, so he is not expected to be treated as a confirmed absentee, but Elmas will miss the trip to Milan after his late red card. Scalvini and Bellanova both came off against Venezia and require monitoring, with Sead Kolašinac ready to step in if Scalvini is not risked.

Atalanta probable XI: Marco Carnesecchi; Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Davide Zappacosta; Franck Kessié, Éderson; Lazar Samardžić, Charles De Ketelaere, Jonathan Rowe; Nikola Krstović.

Sarri’s 4-2-3-1 looked sharper against Venezia, and Elmas’s suspension should open the door for Samardžić behind the striker. Krstović’s movement and confidence make him the natural focal point after his two-goal display.

Prediction

The predicted outcome favors Milan, with a 57% probability for a home win and a most likely score of 2-1. Recent form at the Meazza and Milan’s unbeaten league start, combined with Atalanta’s defensive issues and Elmas’s suspension, suggest Amorim’s men could overturn May’s setback and take all three points on their own patch.

Prediction: Milan to win 2-1.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

It1

Milan Atalanta 18/10/2026 18:00

572319

12-1

2 - 1

2.65

59°F

-120

-120 +260 +320 no no no

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