Brighton Look to Break the Spell Against Crystal Palace at the Amex

Brighton vs Crystal Palace - 10/18/2026

10/13/2026 33

Brighton return to the Amex aiming to turn around their recent run against Crystal Palace, a fixture that has often tripped them up. The hosts arrive third after three straight league wins without conceding, while Palace travel with renewed belief after beating Nottingham Forest.

Key Points

• Brighton are unbeaten in their last three at the Amex and have won their last three Premier League matches without conceding.
• Crystal Palace have failed to win 16 of their last 20 away matches, despite improving with victory over Nottingham Forest.
• Pascal Struijk is suspended for Brighton after his red card at Sunderland, while Axel Disasi is banned for Palace.
• The locked prediction is Brighton to win, with a 44% home-win chance, a 2-0 scoreline and fewer than three total goals.

Recent History

Brighton have developed a reputation as a formidable side at home and have reasons to feel confident ahead of this upcoming Premier League match. However, their record against Crystal Palace in recent head-to-head clashes adds an extra layer of pressure. In the previous three outings between these clubs, Brighton have not managed a victory, drawing once and coming up short twice. This is a concerning trend given their surge in form elsewhere.

Analysing Brighton's last six matches across all competitions, the hosts have been very efficient, winning four, drawing one, and losing just once. On average, they have scored 2.83 goals per game while conceding 1.17, demonstrating assertive attacking play backed up by a resilient defence.

Recent Form

At their home ground, Brighton’s numbers are even more impressive. In their last three matches at the Amex, they have gone undefeated, collecting two wins and a draw, with an average of 2.67 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per game. They regularly dominate possession, seeing over 61% of the ball during these spells, and average more than 19 shots per match, signalling both creativity and pressure up front.

Crystal Palace, on the other hand, also approach this fixture after a strong string of results. They have four wins from their last six encounters, with one draw and a single loss, and are scoring at a rate of 2.5 per game while allowing only 1. Their shot production is more modest than Brighton's, averaging 11.67 total shots per match, but their efficiency in turning those chances into goals has been notable.

Away from home, however, Palace have struggled to convert opportunities into points. Within their last 20 away matches, they have failed to win in 16. Recent form is slightly better, but Palace have lost half of their last 12 on the road, and conceded nearly double the number they have scored in that stretch. These numbers are a concern when facing a Brighton side with such a reliable home record.

Main Trends

Looking deeper at the trends, Brighton have won 8 of their last 15 matches and have kept clean sheets in five of their last 12 at home in all competitions. Notably, they have remained unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 home games, while 40% of both their last 20 matches overall and their last 15 at home have been wins by two or more goals. Brighton have also put together three successive Premier League wins without conceding, including a 2-0 victory at Sunderland despite going down to 10 men.

Crystal Palace’s away record stands in stark contrast. While they have managed three matches undefeated on the bounce in all competitions lately, the larger data set is less flattering. In the last 10 away fixtures, they have lost by two or more goals 40% of the time, and have won only 4 of their last 24 league games away from home. Winless in 16 of their last 20 away, Palace must overcome a long-standing struggle on the road.

Team News and Probable Lineups

Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler is expected to lean on the core that beat Arsenal and Sunderland, but Pascal Struijk is suspended for this match after his straight red card for denying an obvious goalscoring opportunity. Lewis Dunk is available again and should step into the back line. Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Mats Wieffer, Stefanos Tzimas and Evan Ferguson have all been working back toward fitness, while Yasin Ayari is available.

Brighton probable XI (4-2-3-1): Bart Verbruggen; Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vuskovic, Lewis Dunk, Olivier Boscagli; Pascal Groß, José María Andrés; Diego Gómez, Yasin Ayari, Maxim De Cuyper; Charalampos Kostoulas.

Pascal Groß remains central to Brighton’s control and chance creation, while De Cuyper arrives in form after scoring at Sunderland. Hürzeler’s side have been pressing high, dominating the ball and protecting Verbruggen far better during this winning run.

Crystal Palace are now led by Pierre Sage, with Oliver Glasner having moved on after a historic spell that brought silverware and European football. Palace have refreshed their squad around Walter Benítez, Yéremy Pino, Quinten Timber and club-record striker Jørgen Strand Larsen, and Pino, Daichi Kamada and Jefferson Lerma were all on target in the recent win over Nottingham Forest. Axel Disasi remains suspended for Gameweek 7, while Chadi Riad is a long-term absentee. Ismaïla Sarr is available again, but may have to push for a place after returning from the bench last time.

Crystal Palace probable XI (3-4-2-1): Walter Benítez; Jefferson Lerma, Chris Richards, Jaydee Canvot; Anan Khalaili, Adam Wharton, Quinten Timber, Tyrick Mitchell; Daichi Kamada, Yéremy Pino; Jørgen Strand Larsen.

Sage’s 3-4-2-1 has kept Palace competitive despite defensive absences, with Wharton and Timber offering passing quality through midfield and Pino adding a direct threat between the lines.

Prediction

The data-driven algorithm points towards a controlled match with Brighton favorites to claim the points. A 44% chance is projected for a home win, matching a predicted 2-0 scoreline. The trend points towards fewer than three total goals, as both teams have recently tightened up defensively.

Brighton have momentum on their side, particularly at home, but their recent drought against Palace will be front and center. The visitors must overcome not just key defensive disruption but also an unfavorable record on the road. History gives Palace a slight psychological edge, but the underlying form numbers heavily favor Brighton marching to victory at the Amex.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

EPL

Brighton Crystal Palace 18/10/2026 15:00

443223

12-0

2 - 0

2.46

46°F

-189

-189 +320 +425 no no no

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