Liverpool’s depleted attack meets LASK’s home grit as numbers point to goals

LASK Linz vs Liverpool - 10/14/2026

10/12/2026 455

Two contrasting blueprints collide in Linz, with Liverpool’s chance-rich Champions League profile set against a LASK side that often grows a size at home. The data still paints a compelling picture of control versus volume, even with the visitors managing a thinner attacking group.

Key Points

• LASK have lost only two of their last 16 home European matches, but they remain winless in their last nine UEFA group or league-phase fixtures.
• Liverpool have won 19 of their last 22 Champions League group or league-phase matches and opened with a 2-1 win over Atlético Madrid.
• Andoni Iraola is short of forwards, with Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo and Hugo Ekitiké all major doubts or absentees for the trip.
• The locked forecast is Liverpool win at 54%, over 2.5 goals, with 0-3 the most likely scoreline.

Recent history

The sample is thin but instructive. LASK’s only previous home meeting with Liverpool ended in a 3-1 defeat in the 2023-24 Europa League, and the return at Anfield was even clearer at 4-0. That backdrop quietly tilts the matchup toward the visitors before current form is even considered.

Recent Form

LASK’s last 6 matches in all competitions read 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, with a lively 2.17 goals scored per match but 1.67 conceded. The shot profile is assertive at 14.33 attempts and 3.17 on target per game, while possession sits at 48%. The last 3 home outings have still carried threat despite Sunday’s 2-0 defeat by Rapid Wien, with LASK capable of turning Raiffeisen Arena pressure into sustained shot volume.

Liverpool arrive with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss across their last 6 in all competitions, conceding 0.83 per match and averaging 4.83 shots on target from 12.5 attempts. Their Champions League opener was a 2-1 win over Atlético Madrid, produced on 45% possession but with a 5-4 edge in shots on target, underlining an ability to control key moments without monopolizing the ball. The weekend’s 3-0 defeat by Manchester City was their sharpest setback under Iraola, but the game changed after Ryan Gravenberch’s second yellow card.

Overall Performance

LASK’s broader body of work in all competitions is sturdier than their recent wobble suggests. Dietmar Kühbauer’s side are Austrian champions and cup winners, and they reached this stage by overturning a 3-0 first-leg deficit against Celtic with a remarkable 5-1 home win after extra time. That comeback remains the clearest evidence of LASK’s home ceiling, even if the league-phase opener brought a narrow 1-0 defeat at AEK Athens.

Liverpool’s Champions League record is authoritative. They have 7 wins from their last 12 in the competition, averaging 1.92 scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by 7.33 shots on target and 51.83% possession. Even in a recent stretch where half of their last 6 Champions League matches ended in defeat, they still averaged 2.0 goals per game and created 61.33 dangerous attacks on average, a sign of sustained threat.

Main Trends

LASK enter on a dip, having gone 4 matches without a win in all competitions. In the Champions League, they have lost 57% of their last 7, averaging 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded, and crucially only 2.71 shots on target with 19.43% possession. The counterpoint is their home strength in all competitions, where 10 wins in the last 15 and 7 wins by 2 or more goals illustrate how quickly momentum can tilt in Linz.

Liverpool have been hard to shake off, unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 in all competitions before the City defeat ended that run. The away ledger is more balanced, with 3 wins from the last 6 and 8 defeats across the last 16, but their Champions League group and league-phase record remains a major separator, including winning by 2 or more goals in 43% of their last 7 in the competition.

Team News and Probable Lineups

LASK are without Cheikne Kébé, Art Smakaj and Ramiz Harakaté due to eligibility, while Kühbauer’s 3-5-2 is expected to stay close to recent European selections. Samuel Adeniran’s two-goal impact against Celtic gives the hosts a strong bench option, but Moses Usor and Christoph Lang look the likeliest starting pair. Probable LASK XI (3-5-2): Lukas Jungwirth; Xavier Mbuyamba, Alemão, Andrés Andrade; Kasper Jørgensen, Melayro Bogarde, Sascha Horvath, Robert Ljubicic, George Bello; Christoph Lang, Moses Usor.

Liverpool cannot use Federico Chiesa or Wataru Endo in this competition, while Ekitiké remains out and Isak, Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai are unlikely to recover in time after Iraola admitted the short turnaround made returns difficult. That points to Lewis Koumas continuing through the middle, with Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz and Víctor Muñoz supporting him. Probable Liverpool XI (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez; Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister; Víctor Muñoz, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola; Lewis Koumas.

Prediction

LASK’s home volume can bite, as that 5-1 Champions League comeback over Celtic showed, but Liverpool’s control metrics in this competition are stronger and their attacking midfield still carries quality even with the No.9 department stretched. With LASK winless in their last 4 in all competitions and Liverpool seeking a response after the City setback, the model lean is clear. Forecast: Liverpool win at 54%, over 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline 0-3.

Home team
Away team

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Correct score

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UCL

LASK Linz Liverpool 14/10/2026 18:45

252154

20-3

0 - 3

2.97

59°F

-357

+900 +450 -357 no no no

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