Football is Mathematics
UEFA Champions League 18
UEFA Europa League 18
UEFA Europa Conference League 18
Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 7
As the Scottish Premiership moves deeper into the season, Dundee welcome a red-hot Rangers side to Kilmac Stadium at Dens Park. With both teams aiming to bolster their positions near the top of the table, this meeting brings together a home team showing resilience and an in-form visitor piling up wins.
Both Dundee and Rangers enter this contest with positive results in their most recent matches, but the visitors have set themselves apart with an imposing streak. Dundee have recorded three victories over their last six matches, adding a draw and two defeats to their record. Notably, they have achieved an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game in this recent stretch, but remain less dominant in possession, averaging just 37% per match. At home, these numbers are slightly steadier, with one win, one draw, and one loss over the last three, highlighting a balanced yet inconsistent patch.
Rangers, in contrast, have crafted a streak of maximum points: winning all of their last six league outings. Their efficiency has been notable, conceding just two goals across those six fixtures while finding the net 11 times. The attack is sharper, the defense tighter, and a ball-possession average above 50% reflects a well-oiled side intent on controlling proceedings.
Matches between these clubs at Dens Park have generally been one-sided in Rangers’ favor. In the last six meetings when Dundee have played host, they have failed to win a single match, collecting only two draws and conceding defeat four times. The momentum of the fixture has consistently tilted toward Rangers, who find ways to exert dominance regardless of the match venue.
Dundee’s eight league matches so far have yielded four wins and one draw, offset by three losses. Their tally of 11 goals scored matches Rangers' output, although defensively, they have allowed more with eight goals against. This puts Dundee in fourth place currently, with a positive goal difference of +3.
Rangers sit second, balancing their identical attacking haul of 11 goals with a more stringent defense that has given up just five, resulting in a sturdier +6 goal difference. Six wins, a single draw, and one loss speak to far greater consistency as Derek McInnes’ team keep themselves within striking distance of the summit.
Examining deeper patterns makes Rangers’ superiority clear. In all competitions, the visitors have won 25 times out of their last 40 matches and stayed undefeated in 83% of their last 12. A remarkable trend is their ability to secure comfortable victories, having won by two or more goals on 15 occasions in this stretch. Even away from home, Rangers have secured half of their last 12 matches with a win.
Dundee are not without their positives. They have been undefeated in 82% of their last 17 home matches in all competitions—a strong foundation to build upon. However, in direct encounters, they have lost three of their last five against Rangers and dropped two of their last five home clashes with a margin of two goals or more.
Dundee
Goalkeeper: Owen Goodman
Defenders: Ryan Astley, Owen Bevan, Drey Wright, Imari Samuels
Midfielders: Alan Forrest, Callum Jones, Ethan Hamilton, Finlay Robertson
Attackers: Joe Westley, Bradley Fink
Rangers
Goalkeeper: Ivor Pandur
Defenders: Dujon Sterling, Olwethu Makhanya, Emmanuel Fernandez, James Penrice
Midfielders: Dan Neil, Nicolas Raskin, Djeidi Gassama, Ryan Naderi, Badredine Bouanani
Attackers: Kevin Kelsy
Dundee remain without defender Matai Akinmboni due to a muscle injury. Rangers face a longer list: José Cifuentes, Youssef Chermiti, Lawrence Shankland, Daisuke Yokota, and John Souttar are all ruled out by various injuries.
The data tilts heavily in favor of Rangers. Their unbeaten stretch and scoring efficiency, paired with defensive stoutness (just one goal conceded per away match on average), puts them ahead. Dundee’s home resilience cannot be ignored, but the gulf in recent form and head-to-heads is difficult to bridge.
The algorithm estimates a 57% probability that Rangers will take all three points, predicting a controlled performance, with under 2.5 total goals and a likeliest score of 0-2.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Celtic | 21 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
2 |
Rangers | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
3 |
Hearts | 16 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
4 |
Dundee | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
5 |
St Johnstone | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
6 |
Dundee United | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
7 |
St Mirren | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 |
8 |
Aberdeen | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
9 |
Motherwell | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
10 |
Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 |
11 |
Falkirk FC | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 |
12 |
Kilmarnock | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 |
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