Football is Mathematics
UEFA Champions League 18
UEFA Europa League 18
UEFA Europa Conference League 18
Premier League 10
LaLiga 10
Bundesliga 9
Serie A 10
Ligue 1 9
Eredivisie 9
Liga Portugal 7
Andoni Iraola returns to the Vitality Stadium with Liverpool on Sunday, September 20, as Bournemouth look to turn another draw-heavy start into a statement result against the side they stunned last season.
These sides last met on January 24 at the same venue, delivering a memorable 3-2 showdown in Bournemouth's favor. Despite registering just 33% possession and 12 total shots, Bournemouth made their opportunities count with five on target; Liverpool, in contrast, enjoyed 67% control, took 14 shots, and created 77 dangerous attacks but converted fewer opportunities into goals. The scoring timeline encapsulated the drama: Evanilson opened the scoring on 26 minutes, Álex Jiménez extended the lead, before Van Dijk and Szoboszlai fought back for Liverpool. It was Amine Adli who tipped the balance deep into stoppage time for Bournemouth. Numbers reveal Liverpool's creative superiority, but the Cherries’ efficient finishing was the difference.
Bournemouth enters the match off a series of tightly contested games, having opened their Premier League campaign with a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City followed by draws against Everton, Newcastle and Brentford. Their 4-0 EFL Cup win over Lincoln showed the depth of Marco Rose's squad, but three successive league draws underline the same conversion problem: competitive performances without maximum points.
Liverpool's numbers are equally striking under Iraola, who left Bournemouth after leading them into Europe for the first time. The Reds drew 2-2 at Newcastle, drew 2-2 with Nottingham Forest, beat Ipswich 2-0, were held 0-0 by Fulham and also came from behind to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League. Liverpool are unbeaten in five competitive matches, although three draws from four league games show there is still work to do.
Bournemouth’s penchant for draws stands out, with their early-season league record already following a familiar pattern. At home, they have drawn 1-1 with Everton and 2-2 with Brentford, with Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier both scoring last time out. Rose has kept a settled 4-2-3-1 for league games, and the Cherries continue to carry threat through Alex Scott, Rayan, Kluivert and Evanilson.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are still bedding in an ambitious new-look attack. Alexander Isak's two early goals at Ipswich were a reminder of his cutting edge, while Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola and Víctor Muñoz give Iraola pace and creativity behind him. Isak has quickly become the reference point of Liverpool's attack, but the Reds have also conceded twice in two of their first three league games.
Bournemouth’s historical record against Liverpool remains a concern: they have suffered defeat in 16 of the last 20 meetings between the clubs. At the Vitality, Bournemouth has also been beaten by two or more goals in half of the last ten home encounters with the Reds.
That said, the context has shifted. Bournemouth are now a Europa League club under Rose, while Liverpool arrive with Iraola in the away dugout and a squad reshaped by major additions including Barcola, Ronald Araujo, Jérémy Jacquet and Víctor Muñoz. The tactical familiarity between Iraola and many of Bournemouth's players adds another layer to an already intriguing fixture.
Bournemouth are expected to be without Junior Kroupi due to a foot problem, Amine Adli with a calf issue, Julian Araujo with a thigh injury and Veljko Milosavljevic with a knee injury. There are no active Bournemouth suspensions. A midweek Europa League trip to Real Sociedad may test Rose's rotation, but his league XI has been stable.
Bournemouth probable XI: Petrovic; Smith, António Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Scott; Tavernier, Kluivert, Rayan; Evanilson.
Tyler Adams started against Brentford and looks set to continue alongside Scott, while António Silva has become a key part of the defence after arriving from Benfica. Lewis Cook, Ryan Christie, David Brooks and Ben Gannon-Doak offer alternatives if Rose freshens the side after European duty.
Liverpool have no active suspensions, and Wataru Endo is eligible. Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike, Federico Chiesa and Giovanni Leoni remain the main absentees, while Cody Gakpo returned to the squad against Fulham after a minor fitness issue. Bradley Barcola's cramp against Atletico has not stopped his involvement, and Barcola has already forced his way into Iraola's strongest attacking plans.
Liverpool probable XI: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Víctor Muñoz, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.
Milos Kerkez is in line to start against his former club after being rested against Fulham, while Alexis Mac Allister should also come back into midfield. Gakpo is the main attacking challenger if Iraola opts for extra Premier League experience from the start.
Model projections give Liverpool a 43% probability to secure victory. While Bournemouth's discipline and knack for big home performances, as seen in their last meeting, will provide confidence, Liverpool's attacking firepower and superior head-to-head track record cannot be understated. With both sides drawing often in recent seasons, another closely fought contest seems likely, but the Reds may just have enough quality to edge this encounter.

| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Manchester City | 18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
2 |
Arsenal | 15 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
3 |
Brighton | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
4 |
Brentford | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
5 |
Everton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
6 |
Chelsea | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
7 |
Leeds United | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
8 |
Hull City | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
9 |
Liverpool | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
10 |
Ipswich Town | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
11 |
Newcastle United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 |
12 |
Crystal Palace | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
13 |
Manchester United | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
14 |
Coventry City | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 |
15 |
Nottingham Forest | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 |
16 |
Aston Villa | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 |
17 |
Sunderland | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 |
18 |
Bournemouth | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 |
19 |
Tottenham | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 |
20 |
Fulham | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 |
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