Paide vs Zira: Form lines, clean sheets and a 38% edge for the visitors

Paide vs Zira - 07/23/2026

07/20/2026 972

Paide arrive with a swagger after easing past Hegelmann, while Zira swept Torpedo Kutaisi aside without conceding. With both teams showing different ways to control a tie, this one shapes up as a battle of home rhythm against away efficiency.

Recent Form

Paide’s first qualifying round told a clear story. They earned a 1-1 draw away to Hegelmann with 61% possession and a higher attacks count, then stepped up at home for a commanding 3-0 win. Across the two legs they managed 8 shots on target from 18 attempts and controlled key phases with 53% possession in the second game, turning pressure into goals through Pa Modou Sohna, Abdourahman Badamosi and Kristofer Piht.

Zira were even more ruthless. A 3-0 home win was followed by a 3-0 victory on the road, completing a 6-0 aggregate without ever looking stretched. They posted 10 shots on target in the home leg and accepted less of the ball away at Torpedo Kutaisi, just 38% possession, yet still produced the better chances and finished the job with composure.

Recent history

Paide’s current Conference League sample reads solidly: in their last 6 matches in this competition they have 3 wins, scoring 1.83 per game and conceding 2.00. The home baseline is stronger. In their last 6 Conference League home matches they have 3 wins and only 0.83 conceded per game, backed by 5.0 shots on target and a notable 80.33 dangerous attacks figure, suggesting sustained territorial pressure at this venue.

Zira carry broader momentum. In Conference League play they have 5 wins from their last 10, and they have stayed unbeaten in 10 of their last 12 in the competition, with a 50% draw rate across the most recent 8. That mix of resilience and game management has underpinned their clean-sheet aggregate in the previous round.

Overall Performance

Across all competitions, Paide’s last 40 matches show a 53% win rate, 1.9 scored and 1.18 conceded on average, with 5.63 shots on target and 53.1% possession. At home they trend even better: over the last 40 home matches they average 2.05 scored and 0.93 conceded. Their last 20 home games include 9 clean sheets and they have been unbeaten in 16 of their last 20 at home in all competitions.

Zira’s larger sample highlights consistency. They are unbeaten in 24 of their last 30 in all competitions. Away from home, they have 13 clean sheets in their last 30 and concede just 0.93 on average, a platform built on control without needing heavy possession. Their all-competitions attacking metrics remain steady at 5.13 shots on target and a strong 72 dangerous attacks per match baseline.

Main Trends

Paide have been unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 in all competitions and can surge at home, winning by 2 or more goals in 12 of their last 30 home matches. In Conference League home fixtures, 43% of their last 7 have been wins by 2 or more, an indicator that their spikes in territory often turn into scoreline separation on this ground.

Zira balance that with durability and patience. They have drawn 6 of their last 12 in all competitions and are winless in 5 of their last 6 away in all competitions, yet in the Conference League they keep results onside with that 10-of-12 unbeaten run and a 50% draw rate across the last 8. It points to tight margins rather than a lack of threat.

Key Players and Availability

Paide’s frontline has spread the goals this summer, with Badamosi netting in both legs of the previous round and Piht and Sohna contributing. They will, however, continue without forward Henri Anier, sidelined by a knee issue after a lengthy absence of 31 matches.

Zira lose a clear reference point, as Eren Aydın, who scored twice in the last round, is unavailable due to eligibility. Centre back Ruan Renato, a scorer including from the spot, and striker Davit Volkovi have stepped up, while Abdul Aziz Batibie remains out with a knee injury.

Tactical Outlook

Paide’s numbers suggest front-foot control at home. In Conference League home play they average 5.0 shots on target and a high dangerous attacks count, indicating repeated entries into decisive zones. Zira are adept at absorbing pressure and striking in bursts, evidenced by winning 3-0 away with just 38% possession in the last round. Set pieces and quick counters look pivotal for the visitors.

Metrics Snapshot

Paide’s all-competitions home profile shows 54.93% possession and 5.93 shots on target, while their Conference League home sample sharpens chance quality with 80.33 dangerous attacks. Zira bring 4.1 shots on target per Conference League match across their recent sample and 63.3 dangerous attacks, meeting Paide’s volume with efficiency and structure.

Context and Edges

Paide’s strong home resilience and streak of being unbeaten in 16 of their last 20 at home clash with Zira’s larger body of consistency, unbeaten in 24 of their last 30 overall. The swing factor may be Paide’s ability to create sustained pressure versus Zira’s habit of turning fewer chances into decisive moments, especially from restarts.

Prediction

The model lean gives Zira a 38% chance to win the match, reflecting their continental resilience and clinical road performance last round, against Paide’s credible home metrics and recent unbeaten runs. With both sides carrying clean-sheet aggregates into this stage and Zira’s draw tendency, a tight game is likely, but the edge goes to the visitors for a 1-2 scoreline.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

ECL

Paide Zira 23/07/2026 18:00

303238

21-2

1 - 2

2.57

66°F

-303

+900 +320 -303 no no no

FT

1 - 0(0 - 0)

-

- - -