Paide look to make possession count after 1-1 first leg with Hegelmann

Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen - 07/16/2026

07/14/2026 839

The first meeting offered a study in contrasts: Paide controlled the ball and tempo, Hegelmann hung in and found a way back. With the tie level at 1-1, the numbers around form, travel habits and recent trends suggest where the balance could tilt next.

Recent Form

Paide arrive with steady momentum in all competitions, having not been defeated in 7 of their last 8. That run has been draw-heavy, with 50% of those eight ending level, but it also underlines a side that is difficult to put away under Tarmo Kink.

Hegelmann, under Mikel Aramburu Erneta, are searching for a spark. They are winless in 12 of their last 15 in all competitions and winless in all of their last 6. Away from home, the picture has been similarly strained, which frames the second act of this tie.

Previous encounter

The first leg finished 1-1, and the balance of play leaned Paide’s way. They had 61% possession and a 69 to 67 edge in dangerous attacks, while also winning the corner count 4-1. The shot map read 7 attempts for Paide to Hegelmann’s 5, though Hegelmann produced 3 efforts on target to Paide’s 2.

There were two distinct swings: an opener from Abdourahman Badamosi on 37 minutes, then an immediate response right after the interval through Vilius Armanavičius on 46. The pattern showed Paide’s control between the boxes, but Hegelmann’s ability to punish in brief moments, a theme that will influence how each coach approaches game state management.

Overall Performance

Across their last 40 matches in all competitions, Paide have won 53%, averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Their home sample is particularly relevant: across their last 20 at home in all competitions, they are undefeated in 80%, post 40% clean sheets, and have won 12, with 45% of those victories by 2 or more goals.

Hegelmann’s broader away picture is tougher. Over their last 15 away in all competitions, they have lost 60%, averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. They have also been winless in 10 of their last 12 away, a sequence that highlights the difficulty of transferring their moments of quality into points on the road.

Main Trends

One caveat for Paide is their recent history in the UEFA Europa Conference League. In this competition, they have lost 5 of their last 10, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.2 on average. They have also lost by 2 or more in 43% of their last 7 in this tournament. At home in the UEFA Europa Conference League, they are winless in 80% of their last 10 and have lost 5 of those, a contrast to their stronger all-competitions home record.

For Hegelmann, the away trends in all competitions show vulnerability: 40% of their last 15 away defeats have been by at least 2 goals. Combined with their 10 of 12 away matches without a win, the risk profile is clear if they spend long stretches without the ball.

Sidelined

Paide remain without striker Henri Anier due to a knee injury, and he has already missed 31 matches. The forward rotation must again account for that absence. Hegelmann have no listed sidelined players in the provided data.

Coaches and Squad Notes

Kink’s side showed patience in the first leg, using controlled phases to create a steady flow of entries into the final third. The summer window suggests Paide can vary their attacking points, with additions such as Bubacarr Trawally and Deabeas Owusu-Sekyere, while defensive recruits Victor Hugo and Milan Delevic add depth. Departures of forwards like Pa Assan Corr and Muhammed Suso mean efficiency from the current front line is paramount.

Hegelmann’s refresh features arrivals including Donatas Kazlauskas, Carlos Duke, Rasheed Yusuf, Léo Ribeiro and Ángel Puerto. Balancing those newcomers with the loss of attackers such as Matas Vareika could take time, but the first leg showed they can threaten with fewer chances if transitions are timed well.

Tactical Outlook

Expect Paide to reprise the territorial approach that produced a 61% share of the ball. If that control translates into more shots on target than the two they managed previously, their home record in all competitions suggests they can tilt the tie. Hegelmann will look for compact spacing, quick breaks and set pieces, leaning on that first leg efficiency to stay within range.

Prediction

Algorithmic probability points to Paide with a 42% chance to win, and a 1-0 scoreline sits neatly with their clean sheet rate at home in all competitions and the first leg’s control. With Hegelmann winless in 12 of their last 15 overall and in all of their last 6, Paide to win 1-0 is the pick.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

ECL

Paide Hegelmann Litauen 16/07/2026 18:00

423622

11-0

1 - 0

2.12

75°F

-111

-111 +220 +275 no no no

FT

3 - 0(2 - 0)

-

- - -