San Lorenzo vs Lanús: Statistical Patterns Set the Stage for Liga Profesional Opener

San Lorenzo vs Lanús - 01/23/2026

01/23/2026 611

The Liga Profesional campaign gets underway at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín as San Lorenzo and Lanús lock horns after a summer of squad reshuffling and tactical resets. Both sides arrive with ambitions and well-documented recent patterns that hint at how this round one clash may unfold.

San Lorenzo hosts this fixture looking to assert their identity at home, but recent head-to-head history against Lanús at the Estadio Pedro Bidegaín suggests a delicate balance. The last six meetings between the two here have yielded just one home victory for San Lorenzo, accompanied by three draws and two losses. Notably, in their previous four encounters at this venue, San Lorenzo has lost twice, underlining the competitive edge with which Lanús travels to Buenos Aires.

The offseason has been marked by a significant turnover for San Lorenzo. Departures such as Nery Domínguez and Andrés Vombergar have been offset by arrivals like Tomás Silva and Lautaro López, but the reshaped squad will have little time to settle. Two key defensive absences loom as Daniel Herrera is sidelined with a cruciate ligament tear and Alejo Córdoba with a muscle tear, forcing coach Damián Ayude to adjust plans for the opening line-up.

Lanús arrives under Mauricio Pellegrino after a relatively stable period in terms of squad transitions. While they have seen a handful of notable departures, including Ezequiel Muñoz and Alexis Canelo, the team’s tactical structure and high retention rate among their most-used starting players remain consistent heading into the clash.

Diving into the numbers from San Lorenzo’s perspective, defense has been the foundation at home. Eight clean sheets in their last 15 home matches in all competitions and conceding just 0.47 goals per game indicate resilience. The attack, however, has struggled for productivity, averaging only 0.67 goals per home match in that span. Encouragingly for Ayude, the team has been undefeated in eight of their last ten home games in all competitions, though a recent trend of three winless matches highlights the challenges they face in converting defensive performances into victories.

Lanús, on the other hand, boasts impressive away statistics. They have gone undefeated in 20 of their last 25 away fixtures in all competitions, and five of their last six away have seen them avoid defeat as well. Clean sheets have come in 40% of their last 20 away games, underlining defensive discipline. That being said, the last ten away matches have seen them winless 80% of the time, a statistic that provides San Lorenzo with a possible opening.

In league-specific trends, Lanús has maintained a 50% win rate over their past twelve Liga Profesional outings, scoring at a rate of 1.25 per match while conceding below one. Their ability to win by two or more goals in 43% of their last seven league matches stands out and supports the suggestion that this side is well equipped to open the season on a high note.

The likely formations for both sides shape up as 4-2-3-1, which has been their preferred system through preseason and recent competitive matches. Here are the projected XIs based on recent line-ups, transfer activity, and the sidelined players eschewing those unavailable:

San Lorenzo

Goalkeeper: Orlando Gill

Defenders: Jhohan Romaña, Gastón Hernández, Fabricio López, Elías Báez

Midfielders: Ezequiel Cerutti, Nicolás Tripichio, Ignacio Perruzzi, Facundo Gulli, Matías Reali

Attackers: Alexis Cuello

Lanús

Goalkeeper: Nahuel Losada

Defenders: Gonzalo Pérez, José Canale, Sasha Marcich, Carlos Izquierdoz

Midfielders: Ramiro Carrera, Marcelino Moreno, Agustín Cardozo, Eduardo Salvio, Agustín Medina

Attackers: Walter Bou

The pattern of past meetings and broader statistical trends suggest a tightly-contested affair. Lanús’s capacity for away resilience meets a San Lorenzo side that resists conceding at home, though has not found goals easy to come by. The prediction algorithm puts Lanús as slight favorites, giving them a 51% probability of claiming victory on the road, likely by a narrow 0-2 margin. Both squads enter the match with plenty to prove, backed by a core of experience and tactical familiarity, but it appears Lanús has the edge in this opening round fixture.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Ar1

San Lorenzo Lanús 23/01/2026 23:00

262351

20-2

0 - 2

2.31

86°F

+260

+140 +175 +260 no no no

FT

2 - 3(0 - 2)

-

- - -