Spain’s relentless machine faces Bulgaria again in Group E

Spain vs Bulgaria - 10/14/2025

10/13/2025 1028

Spain have the look of a side in full flow, while Bulgaria arrive searching for stability. With the previous meeting still fresh and the numbers leaning heavily one way, the matchup sets up as a test of whether control and momentum can overwhelm resistance.

Spain come in carrying formidable rhythm. Over their last 20 matches in all competitions they have won 75% and, more tellingly, they haven’t been defeated in all of their last 28 matches in all competitions. The recent six-match sample reads four wins, two draws, with 3.33 goals scored and 9 shots on target per game from an average of 61.67% possession.

In WC Qualification UEFA, Luis de la Fuente’s group is even more ruthless. Spain have won 13 of their last 15 matches in the league, are undefeated in 92% of their last 12 league outings, and have won by 2 or more goals in 50% of those 12. At home in the league, they have won 90% of their last 10, with 7 clean sheets and an average of 3.3 goals scored, winning by 2+ in 80% of those.

Bulgaria’s trend line points the other way. Across their last 6 matches in all competitions they are 0 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded, with just 5 total shots and 1.67 on target per match from 33.5% possession. The recent streaks are stark as well, with 5 straight losses and each of their last 3 defeats by 2 or more goals.

Zooming out, Bulgaria are winless in 13 of their last 15 matches in all competitions and winless in 18 of their last 20 away matches in all competitions. In the league they have lost 7 of their last 12 matches, are winless in 80% of their last 15, and have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 20 league fixtures.

The previous encounter between these sides was one way traffic. Spain won 3-0 away on 04 September 2025, striking through Mikel Oyarzabal on 5 minutes, Marc Cucurella on 30, and Mikel Merino on 38. The underlying numbers were emphatic: shots 24 to 3, shots on target 12 to 0, possession 78% to 22%, and dangerous attacks 116 to 15. Spain established control early, repeatedly pinning Bulgaria back and converting pressure into goals inside the opening 40 minutes.

Tactically, Spain’s 4-3-3 has been humming. Pedri, Merino and Martín Zubimendi set the tempo in midfield, recycling quickly and feeding the wide lanes. Over the last 6 matches Spain’s volume has been consistent at 20.17 total shots and 9 on target per match, underpinned by territory and second-ball dominance.

Bulgaria’s route to improvement likely hinges on compact spacing and transitions. With Ilia Gruev screening, Ivaylo Chochev’s late runs can add punch, while Kiril Despodov’s pace offers an outlet. The challenge is turning limited possession into quality chances, a major issue in the previous meeting where they finished without a shot on target.

Matchups to watch include Cucurella’s overlaps against Despodov’s counters, Pedro Porro against Radoslav Kirilov in wide areas, and Spain’s centre backs dealing with Aleksandar Kolev’s hold-up play. Spain’s last 3 home matches across all competitions read 2 wins and 1 draw with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded, reinforcing confidence they can manage game state while creating enough volume.

Spain probable lineup and formation 4-3-3

Goalkeeper: Unai Simón

Defenders: Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella

Midfielders: Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri

Attackers: Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams

Bulgaria probable lineup and formation 4-3-3

Goalkeeper: Dimitar Mitov

Defenders: Viktor Popov, Petko Hristov, Kristian Dimitrov, Anton Nedyalkov

Midfielders: Ilia Gruev, Andrian Kraev, Ivaylo Chochev

Attackers: Kiril Despodov, Aleksandar Kolev, Radoslav Kirilov

With Spain on a run of 3 straight wins with 3 clean sheets and each by 2 or more goals, and Bulgaria winless in 13 of their last 15 in all competitions, the trajectory is clear. Prediction: Spain to win, probability 67%, with a correct score lean of 3-0.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

WCQ

Spain Bulgaria 14/10/2025 20:45

67258

13-0

3 - 0

2.58

75°F

-3333

-3333 +1400 +5000 down down down

FT

4 - 0(1 - 0)

-

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