Independiente Eye Three Points at Junín: Statistical Preview and Predicted Lineups

Sarmiento Junín vs Independiente - 07/13/2025

07/10/2025 1739

Sarmiento Junín face a stern challenge as they host an in-form Independiente at Estadio Eva Perón. Recent trends and season-long stats suggest a tough night ahead for the hosts as they seek to halt their winless run against a side that has excelled in both attack and defense over recent weeks.

The head-to-head history between Sarmiento Junín and Independiente casts a long shadow over this encounter. Across their last three home meetings with Independiente, Sarmiento have failed to register a win, drawing once and losing twice. The trend extends further: Sarmiento have not managed a victory in three of their past five clashes with Independiente, a sequence that underscores the visitor's psychological edge.

Sarmiento's struggles have been particularly stark in Junín. Over their last three home outings against this opponent, they've managed just a single goal while conceding three, reflecting an ongoing challenge in finding the net and keeping it out at the other end when playing Independiente at home.

Recent form adds to the hosts' concerns. Sarmiento have found wins hard to come by, winning just once in their last six matches. Draws have been a recurring result for them, with three in that stretch, and they have come up short twice. A striking stat: they have been winless in 13 of their last 15 overall fixtures and in 16 of their last 20 at home. Defensive resilience keeps them in games, conceding just 0.83 per match over the past six, but the attack is blunt with only 0.67 goals scored on average.

In the 1st Phase Group B, their overall record further highlights a campaign that has lacked edge: only two wins from 16 matches, with nine draws and five defeats. Their position of 12th in the standings and a negative goal difference reflect difficulties at both ends of the pitch.

Independiente, in contrast, travel in excellent form. The Avellaneda side have been undefeated in their last six, taking five wins and a draw. Their attacking potency stands out, averaging two goals and 19.67 shots per game in that period while barely conceding at all—just 0.17 goals per match. Possession stats tell a similar story: they control games, with an average of 66 percent in those six matches, compared to Sarmiento's 30 percent. This reflects a gulf in quality and confidence.

Independiente’s away form remains solid. Over their last six matches on the road, they have won half and have been defeated twice in their last eight—a sign that, while not unshakeable, their record is built on a steady base. They have been undefeated in 16 of their last 20 matches in all competitions and 83 percent of their last 30 in the league. With 23 goals scored and only 12 conceded in their league campaign so far, they boast a strong attack and organized defense.

Probable starting elevens draw from recent selections and the latest squad news. Sarmiento Junín are set to continue with Lucas Acosta in goal. The back four is likely to be Facundo Roncaglia, Renzo Orihuela, Santiago Morales, and Joel Godoy. In midfield, expect Leandro Suhr, Carlos Villalba, Elián Giménez, and Joaquin Gho to be joined by Gabriel Carabajal in a flexible 4-4-1-1. Iván Morales starts as the lone striker. Injuries do not affect Sarmiento’s squad, allowing for stability in selection.

Independiente will be forced to adjust as Sebastián Valdez is unavailable with a peroneus tendon injury. Rodrigo Rey remains first-choice in goal. The likely back line is Álvaro Angulo, Kevin Lomónaco, Federico Vera, and Nicolás Freire stepping in for Valdez. The midfield pivots with Felipe Loyola and Iván Marcone, while Luciano Cabral, Santiago Montiel, and Lautaro Millán offer support behind Matías Giménez Rojas, the main attacking threat.

Analysing both sides, Independiente are favored, given recent form trends and attacking metrics. With 48 percent probability leaning toward a victory for the visitors, the statistics suggest Independiente’s dominance in possession and finishing quality could prove decisive.

Sarmiento will need to rewrite recent history and address their blunt attack if they are to stop an Independiente side unbeaten in 16 of their last 20 and looking to keep the pressure on at the league’s top end.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Ar1

Sarmiento Junín Independiente 13/07/2025 19:15

183448

20-1

0 - 1

1.59

67°F

+100

+350 +200 +100 down down up

FT

2 - 2(1 - 0)

-

- - -