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Liverpool's Title Ambitions Face Form and History Tests

Premier League | Insight
10/01/25
Liverpool's Title Ambitions Face Form and History Tests
920

The Premier League will take a break this weekend, with focus in England on the FA Cup third round. All 20 Premier League teams will be in action in the third round.

Liverpool are top of the Premier League table, six points ahead of second-placed Arsenal and third-placed Nottingham Forest. The Reds have a game in hand.

While plenty of onlookers have conceded the Premier League title to Liverpool, the Reds’ current form may prove differently. Liverpool drew 2-2 with Manchester United in round No. 20 and were fortunate not to lose the match.

The Reds have the league’s best attack with 47 goals scored. Arne Slot’s team averages 2.47 goals per game in the league, which is nearly half a goal more than Tottenham Hotspur.

Liverpool’s defence is second-best in the league, allowing just 1.0 goals per fixture. Only Arsenal’s 18 goals allowed (0.9) goals per game is better than Liverpool’s.

Despite Liverpool’s good numbers, the Reds enter the break for the FA Cup, as only the league’s third most in-form team. Slot’s team took 12 points from the last 18 on offer.

Who was better across the last six games? Nottingham Forest, the shock team of the campaign, picked up a perfect 18 points, while a resurgent Newcastle United took 15 points from their last six fixtures.

The Reds will return to league action and face a difficult run of matches. Liverpool face a trip to Nottingham Forest and Brentford before trips in February to Bournemouth and Manchester City.  The title race looks a lot closer than some “experts” are giving it at this point.

However, the reality don’t see the league’s title race as close currently. Liverpool are favourites of course to win the Premier League title. Arsenal are the next closest in according to specialists. From there, the chance lows significantly for Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.

In 16 of the Premier League’s 32 seasons, the team in first place at Christmas went on to win the competition. Liverpool were top of the table on Christmas Day. Yet, they were there before.

Four times previously, Liverpool were top of the Premier League at Christmas, only to finish looking up at another team as champion.

The 2020-21 season was the most recent time Liverpool were top of the table on Christmas Day only to finish third. Could it happen once more?

Home team
Away team
Probability %
1X2
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
EPL
203347
2
1 - 3
3.50
9°
1.70
4.75 3.80 1.70 no no no
FT
1 - 1(1 - 0)
-
- - -

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Premier League
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
 Liverpool 50 21 15 5 1 30
2
 Arsenal 44 22 12 8 2 22
3
 Nottingham Forest 44 22 13 5 4 11
4
 Chelsea 40 22 11 7 4 17
5
 Manchester City 38 22 11 5 6 15
6
 Newcastle United 38 22 11 5 6 12
7
 Bournemouth 37 22 10 7 5 10
8
 Aston Villa 36 22 10 6 6 -1
9
 Brighton 34 22 8 10 4 5
10
 Fulham 33 22 8 9 5 4
11
 Brentford 28 22 8 4 10 1
12
 Crystal Palace 27 22 6 9 7 -3
13
 Manchester United 26 22 7 5 10 -5
14
 West Ham 26 22 7 5 10 -16
15
 Tottenham 24 22 7 3 12 10
16
 Everton 20 21 4 8 9 -10
17
 Wolverhampton 16 22 4 4 14 -19
18
 Ipswich Town 16 22 3 7 12 -23
19
 Leicester City 14 22 3 5 14 -25
20
 Southampton 6 22 1 3 18 -35

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