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    Is It Liverpool’s Title to Lose?

    Is It Liverpool’s Title to Lose?
    Fabrizio Andrea Bertani / Shutterstock.com
    12/03/2024 1987

    We are only 12 matches into the Premier League season but a gap has emerged at the top of the table.

    Liverpool are top of the Premier League on 31 points, with Manchester City trailing in second place on 23 points.

    Then come three teams on 22 points, with Brighton the surprise contender in fifth place, Arsenal in fourth, and Chelsea in third.

    Only once in the history of the Premier League has a team enjoyed a bigger lead then 8 points at this stage of the campaign.

    That team was Manchester United in 1993/94 and the Red Devils had a 9 point lead. Manchester United went on to win the league that season by 8 points in what was a 22 team division.

    There have been two other occasions when a team has led by 8 points at this stage of the season and that was Manchester City in 2017/18 and Liverpool the following season, with both going on to win the league.

    The statistics show Manchester City, the defending champions, have lost 5 matches in a row and no team has endured such a poor run and gone on to win the Premier League title in the same season.

    Liverpool have won 31 points from 12 games and that points total has been bettered or at least equalled on ten occasions in the Premier League and on eight of those ten occasions, the team leading has won the title.

    However, all is not lost for Manchester City if we look at previous stats and in 2020/21, Pep Guardiola’s teams had 20 points after 12 matches and still won the league. Manchester United had 19 points in 1996/97 and won the title, so there is still some encouragement for the teams below Liverpool in the table.

    On at least seven times a team has pulled back a deficit of 10 points or more and won the Premier League title, so history proves it can be done.

    Perhaps Liverpool’s upcoming 4 fixtures will paint a better picture of what we can predict from the Premier League title race this season. Liverpool host Real Madrid in the Champions League and Manchester City in the Premier League plus Newcastle United and Everton away in the Premier League.

    If they can at least maintain their lead at the top of the table following those 4 fixtures, it must be Liverpool’s title to lose from that point.

    The one thing that could yet cause Liverpool problems is injuries to key players. Liverpool have scored 24 goals in the league this season, 10 of which have come from Mohamed Salah, who also has 6 assists to his name.

    Liverpool have also impressed defensively with Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate forming a strong central defensive partnership.

    An injury to any of those three players could prove costly for Liverpool but if they can keep them fit for most of the season, it is going to be hard for the clubs below them to overhaul Liverpool at the top.

    Home team
    Away team
    Probability %
    1X2
    Pred
    Correct score
    Avg. goals
    Weather conditions
    Coef.
    Score
    Live
    coef.
    EPL
    453124
    12-1
    2 - 1
    2.84
    12°
    +120
    +120 +240 +220 no no no
    FT
    2 - 0(1 - 0)
    -
    - - -

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    OVERALL TABLE
    OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
    1
    		 Manchester City 18 6 6 0 0 11
    2
    		 Arsenal 15 6 5 0 1 5
    3
    		 Brighton 13 6 4 1 1 13
    4
    		 Brentford 10 6 2 4 0 6
    5
    		 Everton 10 6 2 4 0 3
    6
    		 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 2 2
    7
    		 Leeds United 9 6 2 3 1 3
    8
    		 Hull City 9 6 2 3 1 2
    9
    		 Liverpool 9 6 2 3 1 0
    10
    		 Ipswich Town 9 6 3 0 3 -3
    11
    		 Newcastle United 8 6 2 2 2 -3
    12
    		 Crystal Palace 7 6 2 1 3 -3
    13
    		 Manchester United 6 6 1 3 2 0
    14
    		 Coventry City 6 6 2 0 4 -6
    15
    		 Nottingham Forest 5 6 1 2 3 -3
    16
    		 Aston Villa 5 6 1 2 3 -5
    17
    		 Sunderland 4 6 1 1 4 -6
    18
    		 Bournemouth 3 6 0 3 3 -6
    19
    		 Tottenham 3 6 0 3 3 -6
    20
    		 Fulham 2 6 0 2 4 -4
    Champions League
    Europa League
    Relegation

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