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    Will Premier League Winners Need Fewer Points this Season?

    Will Premier League Winners Need Fewer Points this Season?
    11/07/2024 1640

    Following their 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday, Manchester City manager, Pep Guardiola, predicted it will take fewer points to win the Premier League title this season than previous campaigns.

    The loss at the Vitality Stadium ended a 32 match unbeaten run and left Manchester City second in the table. The question is, will Guardiola’s prediction come true?

    If we look back at the statistics of the previous 10 Premier League seasons, the lowest number of points to win the league was Leicester City when they produced a huge shock in the 2014/15 season to lift the title.

    Leicester City won with 81 points and even though it was the lowest total of points to win the league over the past decade, they were 10 points clear of second place Arsenal.

    The biggest number of points to win the Premier League in the last 10 years was the 100 points achieved by Guardiola’s Manchester City in the 2017/18 season. They finished 19 points clear of Manchester United, who reached 81 points, a total that would have been good enough to finish joint top in 2014/15.

    Liverpool won the Premier League title in 2019/20 with 99 points, and Manchester City have won it with 98 and 93 points, on both occasions they finished the season with just a 1 point lead over Liverpool in second place.

    So, there have been some huge point totals in recent years but could we see a drop in the number of points required to win the Premier League this season?

    If we look at the stats, the average number of points won by the team who has gone on to lift the Premier League title after 10 games in the history of the league is 22.5.

    If we look at the 2024/25 Premier League after 10 matches, Liverpool are on 25 points, so they are above the average at 2.5 points per game when compared to the 2.29 points per game average over the history of the Premier League.

    At this time last season, Manchester City had 24 points to their name, which is only 1 point fewer than they have this time and they went on to win the title.

    Analysis of the last 8 Premier League seasons shows 6 winners with over 90 points. That is a tremendous achievement but with more games than ever before, it might not be sustainable.

    The Champions League has expanded and there is the introduction of the new FIFA Club World Cup to consider, which is a month-long tournament in the summer. Coming off the back of a European Championship and Copa America last summer, players are going to be struggling to maintain their fitness and performance levels could drop.

    That would result in the teams competing at the top of the Premier League, such as Manchester City and Liverpool, failing to maintain their lofty standards from recent years.

    It is possible the Premier League winners will need fewer points when compared to the high number of points we have witnessed in recent seasons.

    However, Manchester City have lost just 1 game in the league this season after 10 fixtures and it would come as no surprise to see them finish on over 85 points come the end of the campaign.

    Home team
    Away team
    Probability %
    1X2
    Pred
    Correct score
    Avg. goals
    Weather conditions
    Coef.
    Score
    Live
    coef.
    EPL
    403525
    12-1
    2 - 1
    3.41
    8°
    +135
    +135 +270 +170 no no no
    FT
    3 - 2(1 - 1)
    -
    - - -

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    OVERALL TABLE
    OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
    1
    		 Manchester City 21 7 7 0 0 12
    2
    		 Arsenal 18 7 6 0 1 6
    3
    		 Brighton 16 7 5 1 1 18
    4
    		 Chelsea 13 7 4 1 2 4
    5
    		 Liverpool 12 7 3 3 1 1
    6
    		 Brentford 10 7 2 4 1 5
    7
    		 Leeds United 10 7 2 4 1 3
    8
    		 Everton 10 7 2 4 1 1
    9
    		 Hull City 9 7 2 3 2 1
    10
    		 Ipswich Town 9 7 3 0 4 -4
    11
    		 Newcastle United 8 7 2 2 3 -4
    12
    		 Aston Villa 8 7 2 2 3 -4
    13
    		 Manchester United 7 7 1 4 2 0
    14
    		 Crystal Palace 7 7 2 1 4 -8
    15
    		 Bournemouth 6 7 1 3 3 -4
    16
    		 Tottenham 6 7 1 3 3 -4
    17
    		 Coventry City 6 7 2 0 5 -8
    18
    		 Fulham 5 7 1 2 4 -3
    19
    		 Nottingham Forest 5 7 1 2 4 -4
    20
    		 Sunderland 4 7 1 1 5 -8
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