Football is Mathematics
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The 2022 FIFA World Cup is almost here. With the long-awaited tournament set to kick off on Sunday, we take a look at the top contenders to lift the trophy in Qatar on December 18.
Can Lionel Messi guide Argentina to glory? Will the Brazilians clinch a record sixth title? Could Belgium’s golden generation finally live up to the hype? Or will the Netherlands go all the way for the very first time?
It's getting serious now 🇦🇷😤🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/OuotZTjhP0
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 17, 2022
Let’s take a closer look at the top four contenders.
According to our statistical model, Argentina have an 11.5% chance of winning the World Cup. That makes Lionel Scaloni’s side the most likely champions.
Earlier this week, the Argentines extended their unbeaten run to 36 games with an easy 5-0 victory over the United Arab Emirates. Believe it or not, their last defeat came all the way back in July 2019.
It goes without saying that all eyes will be on Messi in Qatar. Having almost singlehandedly guided his country to Copa America glory last year, the whole of Argentina expects Messi to deliver the World Cup trophy.
Brazil hold the record for the most World Cup triumphs, having secured the famous silverware on five occasions over the years. Based on our mathematical algorithm, they stand a 7.8% chance of adding a sixth title to their collection in Qatar.
Since losing the 2021 Copa America final to Argentina, Tite’s men have notched a 15-game unbeaten streak – picking up 12 wins and three draws. Better still, they head into the World Cup on the back of seven straight victories.
With world-class attackers such as Neymar, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Antony and Gabriel Jesus in their ranks, the Brazilians will be confident of going all the way in Qatar.
It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Belgium have flattered to deceive in recent years. After finishing third at the 2018 World Cup, the Red Devils fell at the quarter-final stage of last year’s European Championship.
Still, according to our statistical model, Roberto Martinez’s side are the third-likeliest winners of the 2022 World Cup. The Belgians have a favourable group and are expected to go deep into the tournament.
Remarkably, the Netherlands have reached three World Cup finals but have never managed to lift the trophy – losing back-to-back finals during the 1970s before falling to Spain in the 2010 showpiece.
This year, however, the Dutch look set to enjoy a successful campaign. With Virgil van Dijk in defence and Memphis Depay leading the way in attack, Louis van Gaal’s side have a 4.65% of winning the tournament.
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | |
| 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
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| 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | |||
| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
| 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun |
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| 01 | ||||||
| 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 |
| 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| 30 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Mexico | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
2 |
South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
3 |
South Korea | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
4 |
Czech Republic | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Switzerland | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
2 |
Canada | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
3 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
4 |
Qatar | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Brazil | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
2 |
Morocco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
3 |
Scotland | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 |
4 |
Haiti | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
USA | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
2 |
Australia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
3 |
Paraguay | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
4 |
Türkiye | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Germany | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
2 |
Ivory Coast | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
3 |
Ecuador | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
4 |
Curaçao | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Netherlands | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
2 |
Japan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
3 |
Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
4 |
Tunisia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Belgium | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
2 |
Egypt | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
3 |
Iran | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
New Zealand | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Spain | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
2 |
Cape Verde | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
3 |
Uruguay | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
4 |
Saudi Arabia | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
France | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
2 |
Norway | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
3 |
Senegal | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
4 |
Iraq | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Argentina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
2 |
Austria | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
3 |
Algeria | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
4 |
Jordan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
Colombia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
2 |
Portugal | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 |
DR Congo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4 |
Uzbekistan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 |
| OVERALL TABLE | |||||||
| OVERALL TABLE | PTS | GP | W | D | L | +/- | |
1 |
England | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
2 |
Croatia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
3 |
Ghana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
4 |
Panama | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 |
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Vélez Sársfield Res. haven't lost in 30 of their last 36 home matches in Reserve League
Saint Louis City are on an unbeaten run of 18 games in their Major League Soccer participation
Montreal Impact are in an unfortunate period, having won just 2 of their last 17 matches in Major League Soccer
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Philadelphia Union have won 7 consecutive games in Major League Soccer
Sporting Braga have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches in UEFA Europa Conference League
SV Notch have been defeated in their last 5 matches in Hoofdklasse
Levski Sofia have failed to score in their last 5 matches in Europa League
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Chernomorets Balchik are on a run of 31 consecutive undefeated matches in their domestic league
FK Dorostol are in an unfortunate period, having won just 1 of their last 20 matches in Third League - North-East
Dunfermline's most recent games have been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals in their last 11 matches in Championship
Juventus Malchika have a poor record of 11 consecutive defeats in HT/FT in Third League - North-West
Qingdao Jonoon's latest record consists of 10 straight losses in Super League
Stockholm Internazionale have won their last 10 Div 1 Norra games in a row
Tristán Suárez are on a successful run of 7 games in Nacional B where they have kept a clean sheet
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Chengdu Qianbao are unbeaten in 47 of their 55 most recent matches (Super League)
Chernomorets Balchik are on a run of 31 consecutive undefeated matches in their domestic league
In their last 20 games in Eerste Divisie, Helmond Sport have a poor record of just 3 wins
In 13 of their most recent matches in Champions League, Bodo/Glimt have seen over 2.5 goals scored
Juventus Malchika have a poor record of 11 consecutive defeats in HT/FT in Third League - North-West
Qingdao Jonoon's latest record consists of 10 straight losses in Super League
Stockholm Internazionale have won their last 10 Div 1 Norra games in a row
At least 2 goals have separated Barcelona and their oponents in their last 10 wins in all competitions
Zenit have succeeded in keeping a clean sheet in their most recent 7 Kubok games
Kalmar FF have failed to score a goal in each of their last 7 Allsvenskan games











