Automatic Qualification on the Line in Madrid
Marco Iacobucci EPP / Shutterstock.com
When the 2018 UEFA World Cup qualifying groups were drawn, there were gasps around the auditorium when Spain and Italy were paired in Group G.
Only one team can automatically qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia, which means one of the giants of European and World football could potentially miss out on a place in the finals next year.
Spain have played in every World Cup finals from 1978 onwards and won the World Cup in 2010. However, 2014 was very disappointing for the Spanish and they were eliminated at the group stage of the tournament.
Italy have a tremendous World Cup record and have won the tournament four times, with their latest victory coming in 2006. They have qualified for every World Cup finals since 1962 and will not want to break that record.
Spain currently sit top of World Cup qualifying Group G on 16 points thanks to a superior goal difference to Italy. The Spanish have won five and drawn one of their six games, with the draw coming in the reverse fixture between these two teams.
Trends show that having scored 21 goals in six matches, Spain are averaging 3.5 goals per game in the group and have conceded only 3 goals themselves. Spain are undefeated in their last fifty-nine World Cup qualifying games, a run which stretches back to 1993 and the 1-0 defeat to Denmark was away from home.
Italy start this match in second place in Group G with an identical record to Spain, having won five and drawn one of their six World Cup qualifying games.
Italy’s goal difference is 4 less than Spain’s so the Italians either need to win this match or improve their goal difference by at least 5 goals if they want to finish top of the group.
Trends show Italy have won their last five games including friendly matches and conceded just one goal in the process. The Italians have always been famed for their defensive style of play and they will be hoping to record a clean sheet in Madrid on their way to 3 points.
They are undefeated in their previous thirty-three World Cup qualifying matches and their last defeat came in 2004 at Slovenia.
Looking at the team news and Spain have recalled veteran striker David Villa to the squad for this game. However, Chelsea forward Alvaro Morata is expected to start up-front with Sergio Ramos captaining the team from defence.
Italy goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon is set to win is 170th cap in this game and should be well protected by a defence including Giorgio Chiellini, Andrea Barzagli, and Leonardo Bonucci. Torino striker Andrea Belotti could get the nod in attack.
This is sure to be a very close game, with both sets of players knowing how crucial it is to take maximum points. Italy will be hoping to continue their fine defensive form but it will be difficult to keep out a Spanish team who have scored in each of their last thirty-one World Cup qualifying games.
A draw would suit Spain better than Italy but the Italians know a point would still be a good result, meaning a low scoring draw is a distinct possibility.
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