Arsenal Crowned Christmas Champions but What Does That Mean for the Title?

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Come Christmas day this season in the Premier League, Arsenal were top of the table.

This is often seen a sign that the team leading at that stage of the season will go on to win the title but do the facts back up that belief?

It was the fourth time in Premier League history that Arsenal have been top at Christmas.

The last time the Gunners were top of the Premier League on the 25th of December was last season and they looked serious contenders to win the title as the season progressed.

However, Arsenal faltered in the closing stages and that handed the initiative to Manchester City, who went on to win the league.

The other two occasions when Arsenal were top of the Premier League at Christmas was 2002 and 2007.

Both times they failed to win the title so being top at Christmas has not done Arsenal any favours. Can they change that by winning the league in 2024?

If we look back at the 5 most recent seasons in the Premier League, only twice has the team top at Christmas gone on to win the title.

Liverpool were top at Christmas and won the Premier League in 2019/20 and Manchester City were top at Christmas in 2021/22 and won the league.

So, it is possible for the team top of the league on the 25th of December to go on and win the title but it has not been a regular trend in recent years.

Chelsea are the most successful team in Premier League history when it comes to winning the title having been top at Christmas.

They have gone on to lift the trophy 5 times when being top on the 25th of December and that gives them a 100% record.

Manchester City also have a 100% record having been top at Christmas 3 times and winning the title come the end of the campaign.

Manchester United have been top of the Premier League on Christmas day 7 times and they have gone on to win the league 5 times, giving them a 71% success rate.

In the previous 31 Premier League seasons, the leader on the 25th of December has won the title 16 times.

That means just over half the time, if a team is top at Christmas, they have gone on to win the title.

So, 15 times a team has come from behind to win the Premier League after Christmas day but only 3 times has a team come from outside the top four to be crowned champions.

Manchester City rose from 8th place in 2020/21 to win the Premier League, with Manchester United coming from 5th place in 1996/97 and Arsenal from 6th place in 1997/98.

This season, any team from the top 5 could win the Premier League but Arsenal will be hoping history does not repeat itself from last season and they can finish top come the end of the 2023/24 campaign.

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