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European Qualification on the Line in Seville

16/05/19
European Qualification on the Line in Seville
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We enter the final weekend of the 2018/19 La Liga season in Spain and there is an exciting finish in the race for the European qualifying positions.  One of the teams involved is Sevilla and on Saturday they host Athletic Bilbao at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.

Sevilla begin the weekend in 6th place, 2 points behind Valencia in 4th and Getafe in 5th. Therefore, they need to win this game and hope both Valencia and Getafe slip-up.  Athletic Bilbao can finish level on points with Sevilla with a win but cannot finish any higher than their current position of 7th in the table.

The hosts come into their final game having picked up a point in a 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid.  It was a good draw, especially having lost their previous two matches at Girona and at home to Leganes.

Trends show Sevilla have won just one of their last five La Liga games and that came at home against Rayo Vallecano.  It was a big 5-0 victory but did not spur them on to clinch the final Champions League place.

Sevilla have a decent home record, winning four of their last six matches.  They have defeated Real Sociedad, Deportivo Alaves, Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano.  Sevilla have scored 2 or more goals in each of those wins and trends show seven of their last nine home games have seen over 2.5 goals.

Athletic Bilbao have enjoyed a decent end to the campaign which has seen them move up the table. They have won six of their last twelve La Liga games and lost three.  Unfortunately, all three of the defeats have come away from home and they have lost to Getafe, Real Madrid and Real Valladolid.

Scoring goals has been a problem in recent away matches and Athletic Bilbao have failed to find the back of the net in four of their last six on the road.  They have also kept just a single clean sheet in the last six away games and this looks like being a tough match to end the season.

Looking ahead to the team news and Sevilla are without Roque Mesa and Ever Banega who are suspended.  They also have doubts over the fitness of Simon Kjær, Maxime Gonalons, Daniel Carrico, Andre Silva, Maximilian Wöber and Lucho Alberto García.

Athletic Bilbao have two players out with Gorka Guruzeta and Ander Iturraspe unlikely to play any part in the match.

This is a must-win game for Sevilla if they are to have any chance of qualifying the Champions League.  Fortunately, Athletic Bilbao are not great away from home and they should claim maximum points.

Home team
Away team
Probability %
1X2
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
Es1
413227
1
3 - 1
2.64
25°
2.12
2.12 3.25 3.85 1 -1 1
FT
2 - 0(1 - 0)
-
- - -
La Liga
OVERALL TABLE PTS GP W D L +/-
1
Real Madrid 95 38 29 8 1 61
2
Barcelona 85 38 26 7 5 35
3
Girona 81 38 25 6 7 39
4
Atlético Madrid 76 38 24 4 10 27
5
Athletic Bilbao 68 38 19 11 8 24
6
Real Sociedad 60 38 16 12 10 12
7
Real Betis 57 38 14 15 9 3
8
Villarreal 53 38 14 11 13 0
9
Valencia 49 38 13 10 15 -5
10
Deportivo Alavés 46 38 12 10 16 -10
11
Osasuna 45 38 12 9 17 -11
12
Getafe 43 38 10 13 15 -12
13
Celta Vigo 41 38 10 11 17 -11
14
Sevilla 41 38 10 11 17 -6
15
Real Mallorca 40 38 8 16 14 -11
16
Las Palmas 40 38 10 10 18 -14
17
Rayo Vallecano 38 38 8 14 16 -19
18
Cadiz 33 38 6 15 17 -29
19
UD Almería 21 38 3 12 23 -32
20
Granada CF 21 38 4 9 25 -41

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