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Trends point towards goals between Premier League heavyweights in FA Cup fourth round

Tottenham vs Manchester City - 26/01/2024

26/01/24
Trends point towards goals between Premier League heavyweights in FA Cup fourth round
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Forebet will be sharing dozens of stats-based football predictions in the coming days, but very few matches will have a higher profile than this one.

On Friday, Tottenham Hotspur entertain Manchester City as both sides aim to book their place in the fifth round of the FA Cup.

Can Spurs take another step towards a first FA Cup final appearance since 1991? Or will the defending champions edge closer to a third triumph in six years?

Both sides have enjoyed a short break in January, with Tottenham drawing 2-2 with Manchester United at Old Trafford back on January 14.

After defeating Bournemouth 3-1 on New Year’s Eve, Spurs booked their place in the fourth round of the FA Cup with a 1-0 victory over Burnley earlier this month.

Not only have Ange Postecoglou’s men avoided defeat in each of their last three games, but they have also avoided defeat in six of their previous seven, notching five wins.

Having won eight of their 11 home matches this season – scoring 21 goals in the process – Spurs will fancy their chances of frustrating Manchester City.

As for the visitors, they came from 2-1 down to be Newcastle United 3-2 last time out, with substitute Kevin De Bruyne inspiring the turnaround for his side.

That victory means that Man City have won each of their last six games across all competitions, with eight victories coming in their previous nine outings.

Better still, Pep Guardiola’s men have suffered a solitary defeat in their last 19 matches, securing 14 wins along the way.

In the FA Cup, trends show that Man City have scored over 1.5 goals in each of their last five games, with all of those clashes serving up over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head: Last month, Man City and Tottenham played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the Premier League, with Spurs coming from behind on two occasions.

It is worth noting that City have managed to win just three of their past nine matches against Spurs, suffering five defeats in that sequence.

Team news: Ben Davies, Giovani Lo Celso, James Madisson and Manor Solomon are injured for Spurs, while Heung-Min Son, Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr are on international duty.

On the flip side, Man City are currently without injured duo John Stones and Manuel Akanji. There are also question marks over the fitness of Erling Haaland and Ederson.

Given that Spurs and City have shared 39 goals in their last 12 meetings – averaging 3.3 goals per game – we should see plenty of action Friday.

Forebet’s algorithm predicts that Tottenham and Man City will share over 2.5 goals on this occasion, with the visitors outscoring the hosts.

Home team
Away team
Probability %
1X2
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
FA
303337
2
1 - 2
2.56
1.60
5.00 4.33 1.60 no no no
FT
0 - 1(0 - 0)
-
- - -

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