High Probability of Goals in Monday’s Derby della Madonnina
Milan vs Inter - 22/04/2024
Fabrizio Andrea Bertani / Shutterstock.com
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The Milan Derby takes centre stage in Serie A on Monday, with the division’s top two teams locking horns at their iconic San Siro stadium.
Despite sitting just below the league leaders, AC Milan find themselves 14 points behind Inter Milan, meaning the Nerazzurri can wrap up the title on Monday.
In this preview, we dive into the trends and statistics behind the Derby della Madonnina. Read on to find out what Forebet’s predictive analytics model expects.
Inter Milan have been the best team in Italy by a country mile this season, losing just one of their 32 Serie A matches to dominate the title race.
Not only do Simone Inzaghi’s side boast the best offensive record (77), but they also possess the best defensive record (17), giving them a huge goal difference of +60.
The champions-to-be head into Monday’s showdown on a 26-game unbeaten streak in the league, with 12 victories coming in their last 14 encounters.
Having kept seven clean sheets in their previous 12 matches – scoring 28 goals in the process – Inter enter Monday’s clash as firm favourites.
Meanwhile, AC Milan recorded a 2-1 defeat to Roma on Thursday, suffering elimination from the Europa League quarter-finals following a 3-1 aggregate loss.
That result means that Milan head into the Derby della Madonnina on a three-game winless run across all competitions, having recorded one draw and two losses since their last victory.
Still, the Rossoneri have avoided defeat in each of their previous seven Serie A matches, notching five consecutive wins between early March and early April.
Having lost just one of their last 17 league games, Milan will fancy their chances of ruining their arch-rivals' title party at the San Siro.
Head-to-head: Inter claimed the Milan bragging rights in style back in September, winning the reverse fixture 5-1, despite seeing just 40% of the ball.
When you look at the bigger picture, AC Milan have managed to win just three of their previous 15 Serie A meetings with the Nerazzurri.
Team news: Inter Milan will welcome back Lautaro Martinez and Benjamin Pavard on Monday, as both players missed the previous game due to suspension.
As for AC Milan, they look set to be without injured trio Pierre Kalulu (knee), Simon Kjaer (muscle) and Tommaso Pobega (muscle) for the foreseeable future.
With Inter bidding to clinch the title and Milan aiming to stop them, Monday’s showdown is destined to be an eventful and entertaining spectacle.
Forebet predicts that Inter and Milan will combine for over 2.5 goals, with Simeone’s side outscoring their bitter rivals to wrap up the title.
Home team
Away team
Pred
Correct score
Avg. goals
Weather conditions
Coef.
Score
Live
coef.
It1
223642
2
1 - 2
2.85
5°
2.15
3.30
3.50
2.15
no
no
no
1 - 2(0 - 1)
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