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Searching for value against the favorite


Searching the value in every bet is highly essential. In the article "bet with value" we have clearly explained the term "value" as far as the football precitions are concerned. While managing your football predictions, finding the odds, which present probability equal or greater than the one we have decided for the outcome to happen, is of high importance to our success. Thus, we assume that we are beating the house edge given by the bookies and our bet actually has a "value".

Finding a good value can be rather difficult. makes it easier for you to find the best odds as we offer to our users the best odds for each forebet prediction in the column of the forebet called "Highest odd". However, there are opportunities for bets that quite often have a serious value and these are the football predictions against the favorite. Of course whether such a bet has a value or not depends mainly on our assumtion - our probability against the bookies probabiliy. Common favorite teams are usually at the top of the rankings and manage to sustain a success rate of over 75%. The odds for a favorite to win in a match are quite low, which is a result of the team good form and huge ambitions.

So the question arises - whether a team can win all their games and the answer is obvious - most likely not. There are only a few cases of a team winning all its games and they occur really rarely. Nowadays it is almost impossible for a team to win it all, which is quite normal having in mind the development of the football game in general. Proper assessment and hitting the right time when to bet against the favorite result in a great value bet. Let's take for example, a series of 5 consecutive wins of a top team. Probably the odds for those 5 wins would have varied from 1.20 to 1.70. Atfer a rough calculation of these odds the total product would be around 5.00-6.00. For the sixth game of the series the odds provided by bookmakers for the favorite team to win again will be quite low, which clearly means that the odds for a draw or a loss will be really high and thus giving us the opportunity to make a good value bet. This is of course if we decided that the favorite team has a decen chance of not winning the game.

Let us consider the following example of a real situation: Bayern München has a devastating winning streak after four wins without even conceding a goal.

  • 25.09.2012 Bayern München - VfL Wolfsburg : 3 - 0
  • 29.09.2012 Werder Bremen - Bayern München : 0 - 2
  • 06.10.2012 Bayern München - Hoffenheim : 2 - 0
  • 20.10.2012 Fortuna Düsseldorf - Bayern München : 0 - 5

But what happens in the fifth game: 27.10.2012 Bayern München - Bayer Leverkusen : 1 - 2 - a home loss after four crushing wins. The odds for an away win here were around 9.00. Presumably there were some players that found value in such a bet and took advantage of it. Let`s consider the player betting the past four games against Bayern München with equall stakes - $1. So until the Bayern München loss, the player would have lost $4 and afterwards would have won $9.

This of course is a happy turn of events for players betting against the favorite. Such a bet requires great experience and observation skills. What we are trying to emphasize on is that a bet against the favorite very often has a good "value". Assuming that there is a value in a bet is important and for this situation requires a lot of thinking, experience and last but not least a good luck.

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