Balanced Forces: San Jose Earthquakes Host New York Red Bulls in Intriguing MLS Showdown

San Jose Earthquakes vs New York Red Bulls - 07/06/2025

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Momentum and resilience will be tested when San Jose Earthquakes square off against the New York Red Bulls at Earthquakes Stadium on June 7, 2025. Both teams arrive with nearly identical league records and a shared ambition to strengthen their playoff hopes in their respective conferences, setting up a clash where consistency could make the difference.

Recent Form

San Jose Earthquakes have been hard to beat over recent weeks. Over their last 6 matches, they have picked up 2 wins, 3 draws, and suffered just 1 defeat, averaging 1.83 goals per game while conceding 1.5. They produce an average of 15.83 total shots per match, including more than 7 on target, with possession just above 51 percent.

However, the Earthquakes have struggled to convert draws into wins at home, finishing level in all of their last 3 home matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and conceded, and controlling the ball with 54.67 percent possession. They are undefeated in 80 percent of their last 10 home league matches and have drawn 5 in that span.

On the other side, New York Red Bulls bring a slightly superior recent record with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.17. Their 12.17 shots per game and 53 percent possession show a team that values efficiency. Away from home, they have managed just 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 defeat in their last 3, scoring and conceding 1.33 per game, with their trademark 53 percent ball share.

Overall Performance

San Jose currently stand 6th in the Western Conference after 20 games, collecting 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, totaling 40 goals for and 32 against—a positive goal difference of 8. Their attack averages 2 goals per game, while conceding 1.6.

New York Red Bulls, meanwhile, sit 7th in the Eastern Conference, also after 20 matches. They have 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded, holding the same positive goal difference of 8. Their defensive record is slightly stronger, averaging just 1.2 against per game.

Main Trends

San Jose are undefeated in 85 percent of their last 13 matches in all competitions. Their history points to resilience—of their last 10 MLS matches, they've drawn 5 and remained undefeated in 9 of their last 11 in the league. Over a longer 40-game horizon, they've lost 50 percent, but generally maintain possession and consistent attacking numbers.

For New York Red Bulls, their recent upturn is notable. They've won 50 percent of their last 6 matches across all competitions and avoided defeat in 6 of their last 7. On the road, struggles become apparent with just 2 wins in their last 12 away fixtures and 10 of those ending without victory, but a sharp 83 percent recent undefeated rate in the league suggests improvement.

Previous Encounter

When these sides last met in April 2023, neither could pull away, resulting in a 1-1 stalemate in New York. Cristian Espinoza gave San Jose a late lead in the 80th minute, only for Tom Barlow to level things up at the 107th minute mark. Both teams shared the spoils in an even contest, which sets the backdrop for this rematch.

Sidelined

San Jose must cope without Niko Tsakiris, Bruno Wilson, and Noel Buck, each sidelined with leg injuries. New York are missing Marcelo Morales (knee) and Dylan Nealis (muscle injury), affecting their depth, particularly in defense.

Probable Lineups

Given recent selections and sidelined players, San Jose are likely to deploy their favored 3-4-3, with Daniel in goal; Rodrigues, Dave Romney, and Daniel Munie across the back; DeJuan Jones, Beau Leroux, Ian Harkes, and Vitor Costa making up the midfield four; an attacking trio of Cristian Espinoza, Cristian Arango, and Amahl Pellegrino.

For New York Red Bulls, a 4-2-3-1 formation is the probable choice. Carlos Coronel is set to start in goal. The backline probably features Kyle Duncan, Noah Eile, Alexander Hack, and Raheem Edwards. In midfield, Daniel Edelman and Peter Stroud should anchor, with Cameron Harper, Emil Forsberg, and Wikelman Carmona providing support behind lone striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.

Prediction

The match projects to be finely poised, with San Jose Earthquakes forecast to edge it with a win probability of 35 percent. Their robust home form and knack for avoiding defeat may prove decisive, with a likely 3-2 outcome reflecting both teams’ attacking talent and an inclination to leave no stone unturned as the season intensifies.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Us1

San Jose Earthquakes New York Red Bulls 06/07/2025 04:30

353332

1

3 - 2

2.75

55°F

-110

-110 +300 +260 down up up

FT

1 - 1(0 - 1)

-

- - -