San Diego Eye Another Home Statement Against Out-of-Sorts Houston

San Diego vs Houston Dynamo - 07/06/2025

419

San Diego find themselves at the summit of the Western Conference, carrying strong form into their meeting with Houston Dynamo at Snapdragon Stadium on 6 July 2025. Meanwhile, Houston arrive searching for answers after a stretch marked by inconsistency. This Western clash offers contrasting narratives at a pivotal moment in the season.

Recent Form

San Diego's recent run has been one of impressive efficiency—picking up five wins from their last six matches, and dropping just one. Their attack has delivered an average of 2.67 goals per game across that spell while conceding an average of 1.5. When at home, San Diego have been particularly effective: two wins and a draw in their last three home outings, with only 0.33 goals conceded per match and control of the ball for an average of 62 percent of each fixture.

Houston Dynamo, by contrast, have managed just two wins in their last six, along with one draw and three defeats. Their average goals scored per match stands at 1.67, but the defense has struggled, conceding 2 goals per match over this same period. Away from home, their record is even more concerning with a stretch that has seen them winless in 10 of their last 12 away games.

Overall Performance

San Diego's consistency over the season is underpinned by first place in the Western Conference after 20 matches—with 12 wins, three draws, and just five losses. They’ve scored 41 times (an average of 2.05 per game) and have maintained a goal difference of plus 16, showing poise at both ends of the pitch.

Houston occupy 10th place with 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats from their 20 played. Their attack has been less productive, scoring 25 and conceding 31, which has left them with a negative goal difference of minus 6. The numbers highlight a side that has struggled to get traction away from home and has had issues turning matches in their favor.

Main Trends

San Diego are in a purple patch, having emerged victorious in 67 percent of their last 15 matches in all competitions. They have kept their unbeaten record intact for 9 of their last 10 home outings, a run built on an average of 5.4 shots on target per game and possession figures that consistently flirt with 60 percent.

Houston's issues stem largely from poor away performances. With just two wins in their last 12 away trips and losses in half of their last eight away fixtures, they have struggled to mount sustained challenges on the road. More generally, in all competitions, Dynamo have found themselves losing half of their last 12 matches—a trend they need to arrest swiftly.

Probable Lineups

San Diego have a few absences to manage. Paddy McNair, Andrés Reyes, and Hamady Diop are all sidelined through injury, but recent lineups suggest a preference for a 4-3-3 shape led by CJ dos Santos in goal. The back four is likely to feature Oscar Verhoeven, Christopher McVey, Ian Pilcher, and Luca Bombino. The midfield trio should be Jeppe Tverskov, Alejandro Alvarado Jr, and Onni Valakari, with Anders Dreyer, Marcus Ingvartsen, and Alex Mighten up front.

Houston Dynamo are without Daniel Steres, Andrew Tarbell, and Jack McGlynn. Jonathan Bond is set to start between the posts, with defenders Griffin Dorsey, Erik Sviatchenko, Pablo Ortíz, and Felipe Andrade providing cover. The midfield is expected to combine Ondrej Lingr, Artur, and Júnior Urso, supporting a front four of Amine Bassi, Ezequiel Ponce, and Sebastian Kowalczyk.

San Diego probable starting 11 (4-3-3): CJ dos Santos (G), Oscar Verhoeven (D), Christopher McVey (D), Ian Pilcher (D), Luca Bombino (D), Jeppe Tverskov (M), Alejandro Alvarado Jr (M), Onni Valakari (M), Anders Dreyer (A), Marcus Ingvartsen (A), Alex Mighten (A).

Houston Dynamo probable starting 11 (4-2-3-1): Jonathan Bond (G), Griffin Dorsey (D), Erik Sviatchenko (D), Pablo Ortíz (D), Felipe Andrade (D), Ondrej Lingr (M), Artur (M), Júnior Urso (M), Amine Bassi (M), Ezequiel Ponce (A), Sebastian Kowalczyk (M).

Prediction

In light of San Diego’s home form and the visitors’ ongoing difficulties on the road, the balance tilts toward the hosts. Algorithmic models project a San Diego victory, assigning a 44 percent probability to that outcome. San Diego’s ability to control possession and maintain a high shot count at home, along with their recent habit of finding the net, make them favorites to collect another three points at Snapdragon Stadium.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Us1

San Diego Houston Dynamo 06/07/2025 04:30

443027

1

1 - 0

2.00

68°F

-167

-167 +320 +400 down no down

FT

3 - 4(1 - 2)

-

- - -