Stalemate Streaks: Portland and New England's Drawn Encounters Take Center Stage at Providence Park

Portland Timbers vs New England Revolution - 07/06/2025

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As Portland Timbers prepare to face New England Revolution at Providence Park, both sides carry with them patterns of resilience, frustration, and narrow margins from their recent campaigns. Neither team has managed to gain a decisive upper hand in their recent clashes, setting the stage for a tactical contest where every detail could matter.

History between these two clubs is laced with cautious respect — especially in Portland. The last three encounters at Providence Park between the Timbers and the Revolution have all culminated in draws, reflecting matchups where margins are tight and risk management defines strategy.

In the current MLS season, Portland sit in fourth place in the Western Conference. Their record showcases consistency, with 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses over 19 matches, yielding a positive goal difference of just +1. The Timbers average 1.47 goals scored per game, marginally above the 1.42 goals conceded per match, hinting at both attacking promise and defensive vulnerability.

Home form has been a foundation for Portland's campaign. In their last three at Providence Park, the Timbers have won twice and drawn once, scoring on average 1.67 goals while conceding just 1. During this stretch, they have maintained an impressive average possession figure north of 61 percent and created chances with over 18 shots per match. Their ability to avoid defeat at home is notable, undefeated in 90 percent of their last 20 home league matches and winning half of their last 14.

However, the hosts face selection headaches. The absence of Santiago Moreno (ankle), Antony (hamstring), Jonathan Rodríguez (knee), Zac McGraw (back), and Ariel Lassiter (hand) will test their depth — Moreno in particular has been a regular starter. Portland’s probable starting lineup, based on recent selections and available personnel, is expected to be: James Pantemis (G), Juan Mosquera (D), Finn Surman (D), Dario Župarić (D), Jímer Fory (D), David Ayala (M), Joao Ortíz (M), Omir Fernandez (M), David Pereira da Costa (M), Diego Chará (M), and Kevin Kelsy (A), deploying likely in a 4-2-3-1.

The Revolution, for their part, have endured a mixed stretch but remain difficult to beat. They occupy 11th in the Eastern Conference, with 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal numbers indicate tighter matches — 24 scored, 21 conceded, and an average of 1.33 goals netted per game. New England’s last six matches have only produced one victory but drawn three, with a respectable 2-goal-per-game scoring rate offset by conceding nearly as often.

New England's away record tells a compelling story: undefeated in 82 percent of their last 11 away contests across competitions. Yet, in league play, they have gone seven of the last eight matches without a win, pointing to issues in converting tough matchups into three points, despite five draws in their last ten.

For lineup continuity, head coach Caleb Porter is likely to field: Aljaž Ivačič (G), Brayan Ceballos (D), Mamadou Fofana (D), Tanner Beason (D), Ilay Feingold (M), Alhassan Yusuf (M), Peyton Miller (M), Matt Polster (M), Carles Gil (A), Tomás Chancalay (A), and Luis Díaz (A), maintaining their flexible back three and attacking trident that emerged in recent outings.

Recent league statistics suggest a match where neither side wants to take unnecessary risks. Portland draws half of their last eight matches in all competitions, and are undefeated in 12 of their last 15 league clashes. The Revolution similarly post five draws in both their last ten matches and their league outings, and have avoided defeat in 83 percent of their last twelve matches.

On balance, the data points to a continuation of a cagey narrative. Both teams are frequently sharing spoils, especially in their direct meetings at this stadium. The Forebet algorithm tips the scale towards another draw, with a 40 percent probability and a likely 1-1 scoreline, making shared points seem a logical forecast based on prevailing trends.

Home team
Away team

Probability %

1X2

Pred

Correct score

Avg. goals

Weather conditions

Coef.

Score

Live
coef.

Us1

Portland Timbers New England Revolution 06/07/2025 04:30

344026

X

1 - 1

2.34

72°F

+280

+115 +280 +210 up down down

FT

2 - 1(1 - 1)

-

- - -