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mathematical football predictions

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Jean-Baptiste le Rond d'Alembert

DAlembertJean-Baptiste le Rond d'Alembert was a French mathematician, physicist and philosopher.
The forebet team noticed some wrong interpretations of the D’Alembert strategy published on the Internet. So, we decided to include this betting strategy, named after this great mathematician.

The D’Alembert system is simply to decrease the bet when you win and increase it when you lose. This system leads us to the thought of the well-known “gambler's fallacy”, which is the belief that if deviations from expected behavior are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely. Simply put, a “gambler's fallacy” is to think that it is more likely to win, after a series consecutive losses.

The “gambler's fallacy” is also known as the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, because its most popular example occurred at a casino at Monte Carlo in 1913. That time, at a roulette game, the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. Thus, some gamblers lost millions betting on red, believing that after a series of blacks a red should follow.

In his article “Croix ou Pile” D’Alembert makes his famous error of the “gambler`s fallacy” type, claiming that the probability of a coin landing heads increases for every time that it comes up tails.

The D’Alembert strategy is quite similar to the Martingale strategy. Our team advices you to choose your betting strategy carefully and not to follow some systems, only because of their popular name. Otherwise, you risk to find yourself in the trap of the “gambler's fallacy”, which might result in serious losses. Thus, you will lose the pure satisfaction of your correct predictions.

You should gamble with reason and only for pleasure.

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24/07/2018 17:00

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